A year ago right about this time, home-sellers across Fairfax County were hustling to get their properties on the market in anticipation – correctly, as it turned out – that things soon would be turning sour as interest rates rose and affordability issues priced out some would-be buyers.
So it’s perhaps no surprise that the 831 properties that came onto the Fairfax market this February represented a decline of 41 percent from the 1,410 homes coming to listing a year ago.
That lack of brand-new inventory is being offset, however, by the increasing length of time it is taking to sell homes. As a result, prospective purchasers in February had more properties to look at (799 vs. 531 a year before in Fairfax County) and more time to make up their minds.
Monthly figures for February were reported March 10 by MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS. And to no one’s surprise, sales were down significantly from a year before. The 694 properties going to closing countywide represented a 26-percent drop from 933 a year ago.
The average sales price of all transactions during the month ($717,550) was essentially flat from the $713,873 recorded a year before, but there were differentials in the three segments of the market:
• The average sales price of single-family homes stood at $979,043, down 4.9 percent from $1,029,954.
• The average sales price of attached homes (townhouses, rowhouses and condominiums) was $491,299, up 7.2 percent from $458,435.
• The average sales price of the condo-only sector was up 7.7 percent from $344,492 to $371,062.
A total of 101 properties went to closing for more than $1 million across Fairfax during the month, including 10 for more than $2.5 million and two for more than $5 million.
Add up the sales and prices, and total market volume for the month stood at $496.1 million, down 23.5 percent from $648.4 million a year ago.
Homes that went to closing in February garnered, on average, 99.1 percent of original listing price, down from 102.5 percent a year before, and spent an average of 31 days on the market before finding a suitor, up from 21 days a year before.
Conventional mortgages represented the method of conducting the transaction in 461 cases, followed by cash (115) and VA-backed loans (76).
Where is the market headed in the near term? The good news is that seasonality has returned, and the number of pending sales (967) in the pipeline suggests March transactions will be higher than in February. The bad news is that pending sales are still running about one-third less than they were a year ago.
Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. All February 2023 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
Single-Family Prices Stuck Below $1 Million: Could March be the month that the average sales price for single-family homes in Fairfax County again surpasses the $1 million mark?
It certainly didn’t happen in February, where the average sales price stood at $979,043, according to figures reported by MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS.
That’s down 5 percent from a year before, and marks the sixth month out of the last seven when the average sales price was below the seven-figure threshold.
Not that long ago – say, 2020 – the mere thought of an average $1 million home-sales price across Fairfax would have left mouths agape locally (as it still does nationally, where the average single-family home price is less than half that amount). But in October 2021, the county market recorded its first million-dollar month, with eight of the subsequent nine months joining it.
The current peak of the Fairfax market was hit last March, at more than $1.1 million, as sellers grabbed anything they could in an effort to beat spiking interest rates.
That the average price dropped below $1 million starting the end of summer 2022 and for the most part has stayed there is not really a surprise, as both sales and average prices tend to trail off in autumn and winter. In December 2022, however, the market again briefly catapulted into the seven-figure club.
The full rundown of average single-family sales prices for Fairfax, based on Bright MLS data as analyzed by the GazetteLeader:
• February 2023: $979,043.
• January 2023: $977,209.
• December 2022: $1,009,366.
• November 2022: $987,000.
• October 2022: $991,000.
• September 2022: $964,000.
• August 2022 $973,000.
• July 2022: $1,043,000.
• June 2022: $1,071,000.
• May 2022: $1,051,000.
• April 2022: $1,044,000.
• March 2022: $1,119,000.
• February 2022: $1,030,000.
• January 2022 : $1,062,000.
• December 2021: $1,001,000.
• November 2021: $937,000.
• October 2021: $1,034,000.
Across the rest of the region in February, the average sales price for single-family properties was $1,353,600 in Alexandria, $1,354,642 in Arlington, $952,955 in Loudoun County, $946,125 in Falls Church and $610,233 in Prince William County. Year-over-year, those prices were up in Arlington and Alexandria, down elsewhere.
Figures represent most, but not all, sales during the period. All February 2023 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
