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Limited Inventory Still Key Driver in Area Home Sales

Those trying to purchase homes in Fairfax County are finding the available inventory down by nearly half from a year ago, but that situation is aiding those who are putting their homes on the market.

Sales across the county were down in July from a year before, but prices were up in all three segments of the market, according to data reported Aug. 10 by MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

Sales countywide for the month stood at 1,041, down 19 percent from the 1,285 transactions recorded in July 2022. While that year-over-year percentage drop is actually lower than most earlier months of the year, the narrowing gap has more to do with the fact that the Northern Virginia market already was easing last summer.

Sales were down but prices were up, with the average $817,190 sales price recorded in July representing an increase of just under 6 percent from $771,198 a year before. And prices were up in all three segments of the market:

• The average sales price of single-family homes rose 3.7 percent to $1,082,308.

• The average price of attached homes – townhouses, rowhouses and condominiums – was up 9.9 percent to $548,481.

• The average price of condos only was up 21.5 percent to $457,837.

Add it all up, and the total sales volume for the month stood at $839.8 million, down 14.5 percent from a year before.

A total of 235 properties changed hands for more than $1 million, including 14 for $2.5 million or more and two surpassing $5 million.

Homes that went to closing in July spent a briskwish) 13 days between listing and ratified sales contract, unchanged from a year before, and garnered an average 101.3 percent of listing price, up from 100 percent a year before.

In a reversal from a year ago, detached properties represented the majority of sales in July (524 to 517). In July 2022, it was a narrow (643 to 642) victory for attached properties.

Conventional mortgages represented the method of transacting sales in 693 cases, followed by cash (180) and VA-backed loans (117).

The lack of inventory remains a key driver across the Fairfax market. At the end of July, there were but 951 properties on the market, a fall-off of 44.5 percent from 1,712 a year before.

Where is the market heading? The number of pending sales reported in July was down 18 percent from a year before, suggesting sales will remain sluggish until more homeowners decide it is worth giving up low-interest-rate mortgages to trade up or down by putting their properties on the market.

Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. July 2023 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.

Average Single-Family Home Price Tops $1 Million for Fifth Month in Row: Despite being down slightly from a month before, July’s average sales price in the single-family arena across Fairfax County marks the fifth month in a row it has surmounted $1 million after spending six of the preceding seven months below it.

The market first surpassed the $1 million average in October 2021, then after a decline below it that November stayed in the seven-figure club for eight consecutive months. In August 2022, however, the market dropped below the million-dollar average for six of the ensuing seven months before again surpassing it.

Fairfax’s all-time high for average sales price for single-family homes came in April 2023 at $1,119,228, narrowly eding out March 2022 at $1,119,000.

The rundown:

• July 2023: $1,082,308.

• June 2023: $1,095,924.

• May 2023: $1,033,794.

• April 2023: $1,119,228.

• March 2023: $1,077,212.

• February 2023: $979,043.

• January 2023: $977,209.

• December 2022: $1,009,366.

• November 2022: $987,000.

• October 2022: $991,000.

• September 2022: $964,000.

• August 2022 $973,000.

• July 2022: $1,043,000.

• June 2022: $1,071,000.

• May 2022: $1,051,000.

• April 2022: $1,044,000.

• March 2022: $1,119,000.

• February 2022: $1,030,000.

• January 2022 : $1,062,000.

• December 2021: $1,001,000.

• November 2021: $937,000.

• October 2021: $1,034,000.

About the Author

  • A Northern Virginia native, Scott McCaffrey has four decades of reporting, editing and newsroom experience in the local area plus Florida, South Carolina and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. He spent 26 years as editor of the Sun Gazette newspaper chain. For Local News Now, he covers government and civic issues in Arlington, Fairfax County and Falls Church.