Options for home-buyers across the GazetteLeader swath of Fairfax County remain constrained, and as a result, their interest level was equally limited in September, according to new data.
Every single ZIP code in the coverage area showed low levels of buyer interest for the month, as the market segued from summer to fall.
That’s according to the Bright MLS T3 Home-Demand Index, which uses a variety of data points and a proprietary formula to settle on a monthly score for buyer interest all the way down to the ZIP-code level. It is a forward-looking counterpart to rear-view-mirror monthly sales data.
Figures for September were reported Oct. 11.
The open-ended scorecard gauges buyer-interest conditions as High with any total above 130; Moderate from 110-129; Steady from 90-109; and Slow from 70-89. Any score less than 70 suggests the market of available homes, and buyer interest, is Limited.
Countywide, Fairfax checked in with a score of 48, down from 79 a month before and putting the county into the Limited category.
Such was the case, too, in the eight ZIP codes the GazetteLeader monitors.
Vienna’s 22180 led the pack with a score of 60, followed by neighboring 22181 at 57. Dunn Loring’s 22027 checked in with 43.
McLean’s two ZIP codes, 22102 and 22101, scored 41 and 34, respectively, while Vienna’s 22182 and Oakton’s adjacent 22124 were each at 25. Great Falls was right behind at 24.
Arlington scored 90 based on September buyer behavior to lead the regional pack. Alexandria, which in mid-summer had briefly risen above Arlington to lead the field, was second in the new report at 76, down from 104 a month before. Falls Church was third at 72, down from 117.
Behind Fairfax County: the city of Fairfax was at 47, down from 70; and Loudoun County was at 42, down from 72. (Prince William County is not part of the monthly survey.)
In parts of the region outside Virginia, the District of Columbia was at 62, down from 71; Prince George’s County was at 51, down from 83; Montgomery County was at 39, down from 65; and Frederick County was at 30, down from 55.
Challenges with both affordability and availability continue to keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines, but there are other reasons, too, said Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant.
“Demand will be held back as well since fewer buyers may qualify or willingly adjust their budget to a smaller or lower-priced home,” she said. “Additionally, the decreases in rental rates in many parts of the region may persuade buyers to pause their pursuit of home-owenrship, at least temporarily.”
That lower demand could bump up supply, though that is unlikely to lead to a major price correction, Sturtevant said.
“And when mortgage rates start to drop, the pressure on prices will only grow as buyers return,” she said.
For full data all the way to the ZIP-code level across the region, see the Website at homedemandindex.com.
Fairfax Homes Finding Buyers Briskly: When it came to the average length of time a home spent on the market before finding a willing buyer in September, Fairfax led all comers, with a brisk 14 days to consummate deals (vs. 24 a year before).
That’s according to new data from Bright MLS as analyzed by the GazetteLeader.
Prince William County (an average 15 days in 2023/21 days in 2022), Loudoun County (17/25) and Falls Church (19/15) all were below the 20-day mark, while Alexandria (21/25) was slightly above it. Trailing was Arlington at 24 days, which still represented an improvement from the 29 required a year before.
For the first nine months of the year, it was Falls Church with the lowest average days on the market (13 vs. 21 a year before), followed by Fairfax (17/15) and Prince William (17/11), and then Loudoun (18/12). Alexandria was at 20/18 and Arlington again pulled up the rear at 26 days, vs. 24 a year ago.
(In case the rest of the region wants to feel bad for those extra few days required, keep in mind that Arlington sellers typically receive more on a per-square-foot basis than anywhere else in Northern Virginia.)
For the Mid-Atlantic as a whole, it took an average of 23 days from listing to contract in September, down a day from 2022. Year-to-date, the average is 27, up from 21.
Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. All September 2023 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
Fairfax Home-Buyers Paying Mid-Range on Per-Square-Foot Basis: Those purchasing homes across Fairfax County will pay in the middle of the pack, on average, in per-square-foot costs compared to surrounding jurisdictions.
And no surprise here: The closer a locality is to the region’s nucleus, the more the average cost.
Fairfax’s average per-square-foot cost of $346 in September was up from $324 a year before, according to new figures from Bright MLS as analyzed by the GazetteLeader. That’s an increase of 6.8 percent, and ranked the county fifth highest among nine major jurisdictions in the Washington region.
The District of Columbia itself once again held the top position, although its average per-square-foot cost of $527 was down slightly (0.8% from $531).
Among Northern Virginia localities, Arlington led the pack; its $472 cost was up 4.7 percent from $451. Alexandria was nipping at its heels at $471, up 11.9 percent from $421.
Falls Church stood at $370, down 13.4 percent from $427, although given the relatively small number of transactions each month, such swings up and down are not unusual.
The outlying suburbs were, as one might expect, more affordable: Loudoun checked in with a rate of $287, up 10 percent from $261, while Prince William’s rate of $242 was up 9.5 percent from $221.
In suburban Maryland, Montgomery scored a rate of $305, up 6.6 percent from $286, while Prince George’s County had an average of $248, up 6 percent from $234.
For the Mid-Atlantic region as a whole, the average per-square-foot cost of $239 was up 7.2 percent from $223.
Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. All September 2023 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
