By Brian Trompeter
Fairfax County taxpayers ponied up hundreds more dollars this year to finance higher county and school budgets, and based on information delivered Nov. 28 to county leaders, they should brace themselves to do the same thing next year.
Officials are projecting a $284.5 million budget shortfall, with an estimated $152.3 million revenue increase being more than offset by a projected $223.3 million more in county spending and an additional $213.5 million for the school system.
While county revenues grew a whopping 7.3 percent in fiscal 2023, officials expect that total to be halved to a more-normal 3.6 percent this fiscal year and drop again to 1.9 percent in fiscal 2025.
County officials project “substantially lower” growth in the real-estate-tax base in fiscal 2025, with residential assessments estimated to be 2.07 percent higher (versus 6.97 percent this fiscal year) and commercial assessments losing 1.6 percent (as opposed to this fiscal year’s 1.65-percent gain).
“We knew this was coming, unfortunate as it may be,” Supervisor Patrick Herrity (R-Springfield) said of the budget projections.
Officials stressed that the financial forecast presented at a joint meeting of the Board of Supervisors and School Board was just an estimate, but in previous years those figures closely have mirrored what eventually was presented in the following years’ advertised budgets.
The lion’s share of the estimated spending increases next year would be for employee pay and benefits.
The Board of Supervisors on Dec. 5 was scheduled to vote on new pay packages for the Fairfax County Police and Fire and Rescue departments, which would see overall fiscal 2025 pay increases of $37.5 million and $23.7 million, respectively.
Overall, officials estimate pay-and-benefit expenditures for county employees in fiscal 2025 would increase a total of $180.5 million and those for FCPS workers would rise by a projected $166.1 million.
County officials also expect to shell out between $16 million and $77 million more (depending on gas-tax receipts, state aid and other resources) to help the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority bridge a projected $750 million budget deficit in fiscal 2025.
According to the early budget estimates, the School Board and Board of Supervisors are contemplating giving about 37,000 employees average raises of 5 to 6 percent, which would cost about one-third of a billion dollars, said Arthur Purves, president of the Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance.
“That would be an 8-percent or $600 increase in the average real-estate-tax bill,” Purves said. “County and school employees got 6-percent raises last year and 7-percent raises this year. In return we get a 31-point drop in SAT scores since 2018, failure to provide upward mobility to our increasing number of economically disadvantaged students, increased crime, cuts to parks and libraries, and soaring gas and food prices.”
Despite all that money projected to head out the door, county agencies were required to submit options to reduce their budgets by 7 percent. Officials will try to achieve those cuts – which would save at least $20 million – via efficiencies and elimination of positions that have been vacant for a long time.
Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay (D) stressed that not only have those proposed budget cuts been implemented, but supervisors have not even seen them yet.
School Board Chairman Elaine Tholen (Dranesville District) said the board’s priorities in recent years have including workforce hiring and retention, student academic success, closing academic-achievement and opportunity gaps, funding to address learning-loss and attendance issues, student health and wellness, and having safe and well-maintained facilities.
“Alignment between the budget and the new strategic plan will be key as we move forward for FY 25,” Tholen said.
School Board member Ricardy Anderson (Mason District), the board’s budget chairman, cited a 2023 Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) study showing that Virginia spends less per public-school student than the national average.
“I’m hoping we can have some joint advocacy so we can compel Richmond to do better, because we do know about the rising costs of education,” Anderson told supervisors.
West Virginia and Kentucky spend more per pupil, “which frankly should embarrass everyone who lives in Virginia when they hear these statistics,” McKay said, adding, “Virginia is failing its public education in every corner of the commonwealth.”
“The vast majority of the school funding comes from local governments, not from the state, and we need to change that,” added Leigh Burden, the school system’s chief financial officer.
Anderson floated the idea of a meals tax to help with school funding.
“We can’t continue to fund our schools on the back of our homeowners,” she said.
“Looking at the projections for revenue is making my stomach a little unsettled as it relates to the need for us to diversify our tax base and look for opportunities to garner revenue,” said Supervisor Rodney Lusk (D-Franconia).
“If we do the meals tax again, we have to be all in, each and every one of you sitting in these elected offices,” said School Board member Tamara Derenak Kaufax (Franconia District).
County voters in 1992 and 2016 resoundingly rejected such a tax, but the General Assembly in 2020 passed legislation allowing counties to approve an up-to-6-percent meals tax without holding a public referendum.
School Board member Megan McLaughlin (Braddock District), who is leaving the board at year’s end, gave a cautionary note about balancing spending with available revenues.
“While we want a premiere workforce, while we want to attract the best and brightest, on what dollars?” she asked, saying people in the federal, private and non-profit sectors may not be receiving pay raises sufficient to keep up with rising taxes.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) will introduce the state budget Dec. 20. Superintendent Michelle Reid will release the proposed FCPS fiscal 2025 budget Jan. 25 and County Executive Bryan Hill will do the same for the county’s advertised budget Feb. 20. The Board of Supervisors will hold budget hearings April 16 through 18 and adopt the new budget May 7. Fiscal 2025 begins July 1.
