The key issue of Northern Virginia’s 2024 real-estate market could be the same as that of 2023 and 2022 before it – a lack of inventory that will bedeviled prospective purchasers.
“How low can it go? We expect inventories are going to get even tighter. Maybe another 20, 25 percent,” said Terry Clower, director of the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, during a 2024 real-estate preview hosted Dec. 13 by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.
That lack-of-housing-options situation in Northern Virginia isn’t entirely pandemic-driven – “it has been happening since 2014,” Clower said – but it is exacerbated because many current homeowners are sitting on rock-bottom interest rates they obtained during COVID times, giving them little incentive to sell their home and have to obtain a mortgage of perhaps double the rate.
For buyers, that means “you need to be a little flexible,” said Heather Embrey, the 2023 president of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.
“You’ve just got to have patience,” she said of the search process. “At times it’s weeks, maybe months, maybe even a year.”
Sellers, however, should not get starry-eyed about the situation, Embrey said, as buyers are hunting for homes priced appropriately and in good condition.
“You still have to keep your expectations realistic,” she said.
The Center for Regional Analysis is projecting modest price appreciation of about 3 percent next year. “We’re topping out on what folks can afford,” Clower said. Sales are expected to decline again owing to affordability and availability issues.
For the roughly 14,000 Northern Virginia Realtors, it will be another in a succession of buckle-up-it’s-going-to-be-a-wild-ride years.
“Stay with your basic training, your basic practices. That’s the key to success,” Thai Hung Nguyen, incoming president of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors, said to his fellow real-estate professionals.
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For the complete 2024 projections for the region and individual localities, see the Website at nvar.com/marketstats.
