Fairfax County’s population is older, more diverse, and wealthier than it was a year ago.
After a pandemic-induced slump in population and the economy, Fairfax County is showing signs of recovery with increases in population, wages, and housing production, according to a the county’s 2023 demographic report. However, the cost of buying and renting a home continues to rise.
Fairfax County’s population in 2023 reached approximately 1,186,000 residents, marking a 1.1% increase from 2022. By 2050, the population is projected to reach 1.38 million — a 16% increase from the present.
Meanwhile, the demographic landscape has shifted significantly, with residents aged 65 and older now representing nearly 14% of the population, compared to just 3% in 1970.
The county is also becoming more diverse, with the report noting increases in Asian, Black, and Hispanic populations. As of 2020, Asian residents make up about 20.5% of the population, Black residents 9.6%, and Hispanic residents 17.3%.
According to the Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates, Fairfax County’s median household income rose to $145,164, an 8.2% increase from 2021. This is almost double the national median income of $74,755 and significantly higher than Virginia’s median of $85,873.
In comparison, Arlington ($132,380) and Prince William ($120,398) counties as well as Alexandria City ($111,955) all reported lower median incomes. Fairfax County is still trailing Loudoun County, which boasts a median household income of $167,531.
Despite its overall wealth, poverty remains an issue in Fairfax. The same Census Bureau survey indicates that 5.6% of Fairfax County residents — over 62,800 individuals — live below the poverty line. That represents an improvement from the 7.1% reported in 2021. Among those below the poverty line, 5.6% are children under 18, while 5.7% are seniors aged 65 and over.
The housing market, meanwhile, is growing at a rate not seen in a decade, according to the demographic report.
“While there have been fluctuations over the years, the general trend is that Fairfax County continues to experience steady housing growth, particularly in multifamily housing units and townhomes,” the county said in a press release.
Fairfax County’s housing inventory grew by 6,138 units, or approximately 1.44%, from 426,412 units in 2022 to 432,550 units in 2023. Multi-family housing accounted for about 67% of this growth and now makes up the
By 2050, multifamily units are expected to comprise about 40% of the county’s housing inventory, increasing from 131,244 units in 2023 to 205,558 units, as the total housing inventory rises from 432,550 to 520,016 units.
Despite the increase in inventory, housing costs continue to rise. As of January 2023, the median market value for owned homes in Fairfax County is estimated at $691,564, a 6.7% increase from the previous year.
“While still notable, this growth represents a slowdown compared to the prior year’s 10.9% increase,” said the county’s press release.
The report noted that single-family units have witnessed the largest increase in market value, rising 8.1%. Overall, the Dranesville District, which includes McLean and Great Falls, experienced the highest increase in housing costs (10.4%).
According to the latest 2022 Rental Housing Complex Analysis report, the average monthly rent rose by 2.3% from $1,913 in 2021 to $1,958 in 2022.
