International migration is helping to keep Fairfax County’s population on the rise, despite a continued trend of people moving away from Northern Virginia.
Updated Census data shared last month by the Northern Virginia Regional Commission (NVRC) showed that international migration to Fairfax rose sharply last year, as the county bounces back from a drop in the early years of the pandemic that could be seen nationwide.
“From July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2021 U.S.A. international migration declined over the years,” Jill Kaneff, a senior regional demographer/GIS analyst for NVRC, said. “Factors contributing to this decline included the immigration policies enacted by the Trump administration and the COVID-19 pandemic’s travel restrictions and closures.”
Kaneff noted that the pandemic travel restrictions and closures accounted for the drop in 2020, but the restrictions relaxing near the end of 2021 and those numbers trending up again.
“Nationally, from 2023 to 2024 the nation experienced the fastest annual population growth since 2001, as a result of a surge in international migration,” Kaneff said.
But if the downward trend in international migration across Trump’s first term is repeated — as his administration’s crackdown on immigration would suggest is possible — Kaneff said Fairfax could see international migration decline accordingly.
“If the first Trump presidential term (Jan. 2017-Jan. 2021) is of any indication as to what may occur with international migration during his second term, international migration would be predicted to slow nationally and in the Northern Virginia region, including in Fairfax County,” Kaneff said.
According to NVRC, the Census estimates that Northern Virginia is now home to more than 2.6 million people after adding 35,181 people from 2023 to 2024 — the largest single-year increase since 2016-2017. Fairfax County’s population grew by 3.6%, which was the biggest uptick any jurisdiction had seen in one year since 2011-2012.
However, the region has also seen a decline in domestic migration. Experts, including an NVRC study published in January, indicated the leading cause is the high cost of living, though Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin recently attempted to attribute the trend without citation to parents objecting to gender identity being referenced in classrooms.
According to NVRC’s March 27 report:
Northern Virginia has experienced greater population outflow than inflow from other parts of the country since 2013, mainly due to the region’s high cost of living. Work-from home became widespread for office workers during the COVID-19 pandemic and has persisted, leading many people to take advantage of the opportunity to move to more affordable places, particularly ex-urban areas on the fringes of large metropolitan areas, and mid-sized and smaller metropolitan areas.
Domestic migration continued to show this pattern from 2022 to 2024, though it slowed for larger and mid-sized urban areas, including Northern Virginia. The region’s net outflow returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. The slow downs nationwide may be attributable to high mortgage rates (starting mid2022), both of which discourage and make relocating harder.
One factor that hasn’t shown up in population trends, however, is the ongoing federal layoffs hitting many Fairfax County residents. Axios reported that there aren’t enough white-collar jobs in the region for fired federal workers, meaning some could be forced to seek employment outside of the region.
NVRC Executive Director Robert Lazaro said it’s too early to tell how that will impact populations around Fairfax.
“With respect to population loss due to actions by the Federal government, it is way too early to predict,” Lazaro said. “It seems the situation with respect to hiring, firing and then re-hiring changes on a daily basis.”
