Control of state government in 2026 will hinge on which political party better connects with voters’ top concerns in coming months.
That’s the view of Del. Marcus Simon (D-13), speaking at a June 28 forum sponsored by NAACP’s Northern Virginia branches.
Though the event was a nonpartisan gathering, local politicians weighed in on the Nov. 4 general election that will see the entire House of Delegates and statewide offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general on the ballot.
“Our message has got to be ‘We believe in you, we believe in your potential,'” Simon said of Democratic outreach efforts. “It’s about understanding where people are really struggling.”
John Chapman, a Democratic member of the Alexandria City Council, concurred with that assessment.
“Our messaging is storytelling — relaying the fact that good policy matters,” he said.
The event, held at Roberts Memorial United Methodist Church in Alexandria, was cosponsored by the NAACP branches of Fairfax County, Arlington and Alexandria.
For the last two years, Democrats have held slim majorities in the General Assembly, often finding themselves at loggerheads with Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).
Political prognosticators have been slightly favoring Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger to win the governorship over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears on Nov. 4, which would continue a trend of Virginia voters going against the party that won the White House the previous year.
If Democrats can retake the governor’s mansion and hold the House of Delegates, they will control all levers of power in Richmond for the first time since 2021.
Simon voiced the possibility that voters will deliver a split verdict — electing Spanberger but giving Republicans control of the House of Delegates as a backstop against total Democratic dominance.
Voters “like divided government,” he said, adding that Republican legislative leaders “think they have the messaging advantage on a number of issues.”
First elected to the state House in 2013, Simon’s district encompasses the Falls Church area from Lake Barcroft to the south to Idylwood and Pimmit Hills in the north.
Simon is facing Libertarian Dave Crance in the fall, but he has no Republican opposition, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
Rep. Don Beyer (D-8), who also participated in the panel, said leaders needed to stick with their core values and relay them to the electorate.
“It’s easy to message what’s true,” Beyer said.
Democratic Arlington County Board member Julius “JD” Spain, Sr., similarly stressed the value of communication skills in politics and policymaking.
“If you don’t know how to communicate, you’re not going to get through to the people you need to get through to,” Spain said.
Spain acknowledged that the public is in a cranky mood, for a host of reasons, and political leaders need to meet the moment, he said.
“The status quo is just not good enough,” Spain said. “What are we going to do about it?”
Beyer anticipates Trump will win budget fight
Beyer said he expects Donald Trump will get most of what he wants out of the budget package known to Republicans as the “Big, Beautiful Bill” when it reaches a final vote in Congress.
“I’m not optimistic” the measure will be defeated, Beyer said at the NAACP forum. “So far, Trump’s been able to get done everything he wants to get done.”
Currently being debated by the Senate, the reconciliation bill would fund approximately $3.8 trillion in tax cuts and allocate $350 billion to immigration enforcement, including for ICE agent recruitment, construction of detention facilities and Trump’s envisioned wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
In exchange, the budget proposes significant cuts to safety net programs, including Medicaid and food stamps. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the bill will take away health insurance coverage from 11.8 million people by 2034 and add either $1.5 trillion or $3.5 trillion to the country’s deficit, depending on the baseline being used for comparison.
With Democrats united against the budget package and Republicans holding slim majorities in both houses of Congress, Beyer said it remains possible efforts to pass the bill will collapse due to intra-GOP conflicts.
Barring that, he said, the best Democrats could hope for was winning control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.
“Next time we get the power back, we’ll reverse it as much as we are able to,” Beyer said of the budget proposal.
