The main question surrounding the special election yesterday (Tuesday) wasn’t whether Democrats would hold onto Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, but by how much.
Even in an area as deeply blue as Fairfax County, a 50-point victory came as a welcome surprise for James Walkinshaw, who secured just under 75% of the vote to best Republican nominee Stewart Whitson, according to unofficial results.
For a Democrat, it’s a record margin of victory in a general election for the 11th District, surpassing even Walkinshaw’s predecessor and mentor, the late Rep. Gerry Connolly, who topped out at 71% of the electorate in 2018 and 2020. It’s also one of the largest margins ever for a winner from any party.
Per the Virginia Department of Elections’ historical records database, which has results dating back to 1793, Walkinshaw’s performance was surpassed only by longtime Republican incumbent Tom Davis (who received more than 80% of the vote in 1998 and 2002), John Mercer (who managed to win all 265 votes cast in 1815) and Thomas Newton Jr., a Democratic-Republican who beat out federalist John Niveson with 96% of the vote in 1801.
Walkinshaw also garnered more complete support among 11th District voters than Kamala Harris did in last year’s presidential election, outpacing her district-wide by nearly 16 points.
“With an overwhelming victory and a record setting turnout and margin tonight, Northern Virginians have sent a very powerful message that the reckless Trump agenda must come to an end,” Walkinshaw said at his victory party after the polls closed.
Democratic Party sweeps all precincts
Walkinshaw swept each of the 11th District’s 181 precincts overwhelmingly, reaching 80% of the vote in 36 of them. Across the aisle, Whitson drew 40% of more of the vote in only three of those precincts — less than 4% of them.
Walkinshaw’s best performance came in the Providence District’s Bedford precinct, which voted at Luther Jackson Middle School in Merrifield. There, he received 40 of 41 votes cast, good for 97.56%.
On the other hand, Whitson’s best performance came at the Colchester precinct in the Springfield District, claiming 44.93% of the 661 votes cast at the Mott Community Center (12111 Braddock Road).
Walkinshaw outperformed Kamala Harris in all but two precincts
In only two precincts did Walkinshaw fail to match Kamala Harris’ performance during the 2024 presidential election.
Walkinshaw garnered 55% of the vote in both the Seneca and Forestville precincts in the Dranesville District, though both results paled in comparison to Harris’ success in November.
In Seneca, Walkinshaw came up short of Harris by finishing only 11.67 points ahead. In her race against President Donald Trump, Harris finished nearly 15 points ahead in the same precinct.
Walkinshaw fared somewhat better in Forestville, where he finished 11.42 points ahead of Whitson. Harris finished 12.26 points ahead in that precinct.
In 76 precincts, however, Walkinshaw exceeded Harris’s vote total by 10 or more points.
Voter turnout severely down from previous elections
As is common with special elections, fewer voters turned out to the polls than in previous general elections.
Tuesday’s election saw 28% of Fairfax City voters and 26% of Fairfax County voters cast ballots, down more than 40 points from turnout in November.
In addition to having a relatively short lead-up of just four months, the election was the only race on the ballot, so it couldn’t benefit from turnout due to other races, such as a presidential election.
