They stumbled and they tumbled in January, but things might be looking up for home sales across Fairfax County as spring approaches.
A total of 552 properties went to closing during what traditionally is one of the slowest months of the year in local real estate, according to new figures.
But that rate was anemic even by winter standards, as it was down fully a third from the 817 transactions recorded in January 2022, according to figures reported by MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS.
The chasm is no real surprise: The local real-estate market was still robust as 2022 kicked off, not having its wings clipped until spiking interest rates began to impact the decision-making of prospective buyers as winter transitioned into springtime last year.
The January 2023 overall average sales price countywide was generally flat year-over-year, $716,076 compared to $710,626, but there was variation in the market segments:
• The average sales price of single-family homes dropped 8 percent to $977,209.
• The average sales price of the attached-home market (townhouses, rowhouses and condominiums) was up 8.8 percent to $488,581.
• The condo-only market saw an increase of 11.3 percent to $368,476.
A total of 74 properties changed hands for more than $1 million during the month, including seven for more than $2.5 million and one for more than $5 million.
Add it all up, and January’s market volume of $401 million was down about 31 percent from a year before.
Sellers were having to wait longer to find a buyer, and accept less than they wanted. Homes that went to closing in January spent an average of 35 days on the market between listing and ratified sales contract, up from 33 a year before, and garnered an average 97.1 percent of listing price, down from 99.4 percent.
Conventional mortgages represented the means of financing 349 sales, followed by cash (103), VA-backed loans (63) and FHA-backed mortgages (25).
Prospective sellers appear to still be sitting on the fence. The 790 new listings that came on the market in January represented a decline of nearly 20 percent from a year before, when those hoping to cash in were getting their properties listed in an attempt to beat the market slowdown that was clearly on the way.
But with buyers themselves in no rush to land a home these days, the number of total active listings on the market at the end of January was up more than 60 percent from a year before.
There is a ray of sunshine, perhaps: While sales in January were down 32 percent, pending sales (those in the pipeline but not yet consummated) were down just 24 percent and those that had become pending during the month were down just 18 percent from a year ago. That suggests there is some traction as the winter market begins to give way to springtime.
Figures represent most, but not all, sales during the period. All January 2023 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
Home Availability Limited Through Much of Region as Spring Approaches: Prospective home-buyers across the local area are finding themselves facing a dearth of inventory as the winter season has yet to segue into springtime.
February data from the T3 Home-Demand Index of Bright MLS show a limited supply of properties across most of the GazetteLeader’s coverage area in Fairfax County, even though inventory has increased owing to buyers taking more time to take their selections.
The T3 Home Demand Index uses a variety of data points to settle on a monthly score for buyer interest all the way down to the ZIP-code level. It is a forward-looking counterpart to rear-view-mirror monthly sales data.
The open-ended scorecard gauges buyer-interest conditions as High with any score above 130; Moderate from 110-129; Steady from 90-109; and Slow from 70-89. Any score less than 70 suggests the market of available homes is limited.
And that’s where all the GazetteLeader’s Fairfax communities stood in new data.
Scores for February were 64 both for the 22180 ZIP code (Vienna area) and 22102 (McLean); 55 for 22181 (Vienna); 42 for 22124 (Oakton); 41 for 22101 (McLean); 35 for 22182 (Vienna); 25 for 22066 (Great Falls); and 24 for 22027 (Dunn Loring).
For Faifax County in its entirety, the average February score of 73 (in the Slow category) was up from a month before but down from a year ago.
Across the Washington metro area, the overall February score of 71 was up from 56 a month before, although down from a year ago.
The highest jump in demand month-over-month was in the high-end category for both single-family homes and condominiums, where buyers seemed to be getting a jump on the spring market.
For the complete report, see the Website at getsmartcharts.com.
