Despite a year-over-year uptick in sales and a new monthly record sales price, the Washington region’s homes market may be reaching an affordability crunch that could cause a weak summer sales period.
That’s one possibility posited by Bright MLS, the region’s multiple-listing service, in parsing April sales data.
“Affordability challenges could keep more buyers on the sidelines this summer,” chief economist Lisa Sturtevant said.
A decline in the number of home showings in April compared to a year before regionally and in many individual jurisdictions “indicates a weakening demand pool in the region,” she said.
Across the Washington area, total home-showings for April stood at 113,834, down 13.7 percent from a year before.
The only region to post an increase was the relatively small city of Falls Church, where market swings often depend on homes available.
In larger localities, figures were down – including drops of 10.1 percent in Fairfax County and 24 percent in Arlington.
But at least up to this point in the year, declines in showings (they are off 12.7 percent year-to-date) have not derailed sales prices. And pending sales, which usually translate to consummated transactions in a month or two, remain in positive territory year-over-year.
But with the median regional sales price ($640,000) in April at a new record, and with both single-family and townhome sectors setting all-time highs, there could be a looming inflection point waiting in the wings.
“Potential buyers may be waiting for rates to fall, or stepping away as affordability challenges only grow,” the Bright MLS analysis noted.
In April, there were 4,518 closed sales, up 7.4 percent from 4,207 a year before. The $640,00 median sales price was up from $586,000 a year before.
Figures represent transactions in the District of Columbia; Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church in Virginia; and Montgomery, Prince George’s and Frederick counties in Maryland.
For full details, see the Website at brightmls.com/research.
N.Va. Home Sales on Par with 2023 to Start Year: Just four home sales separated the first four months of 2024 from the same period in 2023, according to an analysis of sales data from Northern Virginia’s five most populous localities.
A total of 7,350 homes went to closing during the January-through-April period, according to a GazetteLeader analysis of data provided May 10 by Bright MLS, the region’s multiple-listing service.
That compares to 7,354 sales during the same period in 2023.
While the total among the five localities was flat, there was plenty of variety among individual jurisdiction:
• Transactions in Fairfax County totaled 3,237, down 0.3 percent from 3,247.
• Sales in Prince William County totaled 1,452, down 4.4 percent from 1,519.
• Closings in Loudoun County totaled 1,340, up 3.4 percent from 1,296.
• Sales in Arlington totaled 715, up 7.8 percent from 663.
• Consummated deals in Alexandria totaled 606, down 3.7 percent from 629.
The overall flat results in Northern Virginia were mirrored in the Mid-Atlantic region as a whole. In Bright MLS’s full coverage area (which includes the District of Columbia and portions of six states), sales for the first third of the year totaled 61,809, down 0.9 percent from a year before.
Per-Square-Foot Sales Prices Up Across the Region: Home-sellers across the region in April were receiving, on average, more per square foot for their property than had been the case a year before.
All nine major local jurisdictions saw increases in average-per-square-foot cost, according to a GazetteLeader analysis of data reported May 10 by Bright MLS, the area’s multiple-listing service.
But the rate of increase varied, ranging from less than 1 percent to nearly 33 percent.
Three jurisdictions recorded per-square-foot average prices of more than $500 for the month: Falls Church, which catapulted to the top with an average of $554, up 32.2 percent from $419; the District of Columbia, up 0.9 percent from $553 to $538; and Arlington, rising 12.7 percent from $465 to $524.
Slightly less stratospheric but still high were Alexandria, rising 3.5 percent from $459 to $475; Fairfax County, up 5.8 percent from $348 to $368; and Montgomery County, up 3.8 percent from $316 to $328.
Under $300 were Loudoun County, up 11.3 percent from $266 to $296; Prince William County, up 8.7 percent from $229 to $249; and Prince George’s County, up 2.5 percent from $236 to $242.
Across the entire Bright MLS coverage area, which includes the District of Columbia and portions of six states across the Mid-Atlantic, the average per-square-foot price reported in April 2024 was $253, up 6.3 percent from $238.
