The number of Fairfax County residents counted as unemployed and looking for work in February spiked 17% from the same month in 2024 in new data.
The city and county-level unemployment figures released by the Virginia Employment Commission last Thursday (April 10) kickstarted what could be a series of punishing monthly jobless reports in coming months, as the D.C. region begins to adjust to the ripple effects of the Trump administration gutting the federal government and tariff-related uncertainty.
An increasing unemployment rate is just one of “pretty vexing problems that we’re trying to solve,” Franconia District Supervisor Rodney Lusk said while chairing the April 9 meeting of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG).
In Fairfax County, the jobless rate of 2.9% ticked up from 2.7% in January and showed an increase from 2.5% a year before.
Countywide, there were 629,242 residents employed in the civilian workforce in February, down both from January 2025 (631,486) and February 2024 (638,846). The 19,047 people counted as unemployed and seeking work in February increased from 17,744 in January and 16,288 a year earlier.
The local figures don’t break out changes in federal government employment, but the statewide count of 196,100 federal workers for February was down 600 from a month before — though it was up by 3,800 jobs from February 2024.
Fairfax County is home to approximately 80,000 federal workers, county officials say.
Statewide, federal government jobs provide a median income of $117,700 compared to $66,500 for the overall workforce, according to a COG analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
In the metropolitan D.C. area, the median income of the 432,000 federal workers is just under $130,000, compared to $86,000 for all workers.
At the COG meeting, board members raised concerns that high-skilled federal workers will be unable to find comparable jobs in the local region, leading them to move out. That, in turn, could affect everything from real estate prices to the survival of restaurants.
While the unemployment numbers add another layer of uncertainty for the local area, some say that the region has a built-in resilience to tap upon.
“We’ve got undeniable strengths, a vibrant business ecosystem,” Mark Carrier, who chairs the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce, said at the COG meeting.
But he also echoed a recurring theme that the changes arriving are not likely to be transitory.
“There are going to be long-term, fundamental challenges,” he predicted.
Fairfax County wasn’t alone in its upward unemployment tick in February. Neighbors Arlington and Falls Church were among the other Northern Virginia localities to see bumps up.
In Arlington, county school leaders say they may have to reevaluate their fiscal year 2026 budget plan, in part because of fears about declines in federal funding. Meanwhile, Falls Church officials recently reported disappointing sales and meals tax revenue, leading to some trepidation in advance of the city’s final budget adoption in May.
Like Carrier of the Northern Virginia chamber, Falls Church City Manager Wyatt Shields has concerns that the economic headwinds are not simply transitory.
“This isn’t going to be a blip,” Shields told the Falls Church City Council during an April 9 meeting, advising members to adopt the mindset that the economic shift “is going to be a multi-year, structural change.”
Officials on the Maryland side of the Potomac are also bracing for budget cuts and economic uncertainty “to have a tremendous impact in the short term,” said Alexander Austin, CEO of the Prince George’s County Chamber of Commerce.
“We have to get through this storm,” Austin said.
The ongoing federal funding cuts and layoffs have become central issues in this year’s race for governor between Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who both secured their respective parties’ nominations last week.
A spokesman for the current governor, Republican Glenn Youngkin, told FFXnow that Virginia has retained a “strong, dynamic economy” under his leadership.
“The commonwealth has seen approximately 1,500 combined unemployment-insurance claims from federal employees and federal contractors statewide,” Peter Finocchio said. “In contrast, the commonwealth is home to over 250,000 open jobs, with approximately 100,000 of those being in the Northern Virginia region.”
