Fairfax County in August had a 27.5% year-over-year increase in unemployed residents, a number some regional leaders may simply be the tip of the iceberg if more federal cuts and a weaker economy arrive.
A total of 622,875 county residents were employed in the civilian workforce, and 24,048 were looking for jobs during the month, according to figures reported Wednesday (Oct. 1) by the Virginia Department of Workforce Development and Advancement (Virginia Works).
The number of unemployed residents increased by a single individual from July 2025 figures, but that was enough to set a new post-pandemic high.
There were 18,855 unemployed Fairfax residents in August 2024, when 636,862 residents were counted as employed in state data.
Fairfax’s August 2025 jobless rate of 3.7% was unchanged from a month before, but up from 2.9% a year ago.
The county’s year-over-year increase in joblessness exceeded the figures reported Oct. 1 by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics for Northern Virginia, which saw a 23.8% increase in unemployment to 65,424 residents, and the Washington region as a whole, where unemployment is up 23.1% from 2024 to 150,626.
August 2025 unemployment rates were 3.6% across Northern Virginia — up from 3% a year before — and 4.3% metro-wide, up from 3.4%.
Fairfax has still fared better than the closer-in localities of Arlington, Alexandria and Falls Church, which have higher concentrations of their workforce connected to the federal government.
The August showed joblessness up year-over-year by 35% in Alexandria, just under 38% in Arlington and a whopping 60% in the City of Falls Church.
Statewide, the number of unemployed residents rose 16.5% year-over-year to 175,560 in August. The state’s unemployment rate stood at 3.9%, up from 3.3% a year before.
All figures represent non-seasonally-adjusted data.
Unemployment figures for Virginia localities and metro areas are reported a month after being compiled. The August figures came out the same day the federal government entered a partial shutdown as Congress failed to agree on a spending plan at the start of the fiscal year.
It is the fourth government shutdown over the past decade, with the longest lasting 35 days in 2018 and 2019.
Beyond impacts of the shutdown, Northern Virginia’s unemployment numbers could balloon in coming months, as federal employees who took buyouts at the start of the year stopped receiving government paychecks on Sept. 30.
Leaders across Northern Virginia are watching the situation in an effort to gauge its impact on an already rattled local economy.
“We’re entering some challenging times,” Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay said at a Sept. 30 meeting when that county’s leadership voted to put additional fiscal year 2025 carryover funding into reserves in an effort to cushion the economic blow.
Among those watching the shutdown situation closely is Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for the Bright MLS multiple-listing system.
“In general, previous impacts of a federal government shutdown on the local economy and housing market have been modest and temporary,” Sturtevant said. “However, this shutdown is different for a few reasons, and the potential for negative impacts on the economy and housing market are more significant.”
Those negative impacts could chill an already cool local housing market, Sturtevant said.
“Even before the shutdown, the Washington D.C. area housing market was weaker than other Mid-Atlantic markets, with more listings, slower home-price appreciation and longer time on market,” she said. “This shutdown could significantly impact housing demand — in the D.C. area, there will be a more direct impact on housing demand and supply.”
The Youngkin administration attempted to find the positive in August’s jobs numbers, pointing to a year-over-year increase in nonfarm employment across the commonwealth.
“Virginia businesses are growing, and our economy is strong. The gains we’re seeing in payroll jobs reflect confidence from employers, and we’ll keep building on this momentum,” said Secretary of Commerce and Trade Juan Pablo Segura.
Unemployment rates were higher in August than a year earlier in 243 of the nation’s 387 metropolitan areas, lower in 115 and unchanged in 29, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
The national jobless rate of 4.5% was statistically unchanged from a year before, according to federal officials.
Thirty metro areas had jobless rates of less than 3%, while eight areas recorded rates of at least 8%.
Of the 56 metropolitan areas with a 2020 Census population of a million or more residents, the lowest August rates were reported in Birmingham and Honolulu at 2.5% each. The highest rate was found in Fresno, California, at 7.9%.
