Will the Fairfax County government be able to meet its goal of 10,000 new affordable housing units by 2034? The county’s top housing official is optimistic but hedging his bets.
“We do feel like we’re very much headed in the right direction,” said Thomas Fleetwood, director of the county’s Department of Housing and Community Development.
But Fleetwood, responding to a question during a briefing at the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors’ Housing Committee meeting on May 12, declined to predict the future.
“A lot has to go right to get to 10,000,” he said. “A lot has to go right in the market, a lot has to go right for the county from a budgetary standpoint. There are so many variables that could impact this.”
The question came from Mount Vernon District Supervisor Dan Storck, who said he was pleased with the progress made since the 10,000 goal was set in 2022, but fears the county could fall short if affordable housing isn’t its top priority.
“Are there the dollars needed to make that happen? Where do we stand?” he asked Fleetwood at the tail end of the 90-minute committee meeting.
In the fiscal year 2027 budget adopted earlier this month, supervisors increased funding to support affordable housing to $52.7 million. But to the chagrin of housing advocates, the funding continues to fall short of the county’s aspirational target of dedicating the equivalent of 2 cents of the real estate tax rate.
Storck said he fears “we don’t really understand the millions of dollars it’s going to take to get there, and I want to understand that because I want to educate others.”
Without stronger commitments, Storck remained “deeply cautious” about whether the goal could be achieved.
“We’ve got to make it happen,” he said.
With county supervisors and staff looking on, what followed was a verbal tennis match across the committee room table. Storck attempted to get Fleetwood to commit to a firm date for bringing back more concrete information on the funding it would take to meet the 10,000 goal, while the housing director declined to make any definitive promises.
“Can I get a commitment on when we might be able to get something like that?” the supervisor asked.
When Fleetwood said that staff would look into it, Storck again asked if the director could “give me some idea” of a possible timeline.
When Fleetwood proposed the end of summer, Storck sought to make that more definitive.
“No later than August?” the supervisor inquired. “I like dates.”
At that point, County Executive Bryan Hill stepped in, saying he would huddle with staff and report back on a firm deadline to provide the information. That satisfied Storck.
The goal of 10,000 new affordable units counts those created by the private sector, governmental entities and nonprofits, along with both owned and rental homes.
Another county policy objective seeks no net loss of existing affordable housing.
Set by the Board of Supervisors in 2022, the goal of 10,000 new affordable homes represented a doubling of the previous goal of 5,000, set in 2019.
According to county data, the effort toward 10,000 new units is about halfway there, with 25% constructed, an additional 15% under construction and another 15% in stages of pre-development.
Whether the county achieves its goal may depend on how it chooses to define “affordable.”
Under the county’s program, affordable dwelling units (ADUs) can be reserved for those earning up to 70% of the area’s median income (AMI), which was $163,900 for a household of four, as of 2025. The income range for workforce dwelling units, meanwhile, is 60 to 120% AMI.
