Fairfax County could benefit economically from a casino-anchored development, but the numbers might be more modest than previously shared projections, an internal review by the county suggests.
A Fairfax County casino would produce an estimated $313.6 million in gaming revenue, delivering $62.1 million in local and state taxes, the county’s Department of Management and Budget said in a summary of a feasibility study it commissioned from the consultant MuniCap.
That would send approximately $42.4 million in tax revenue to the Commonwealth and $19.9 million to the county under Virginia’s current tax rate for casinos, which varies depending on the total amount of revenue but generally results in a 70% to 30% split for the state versus the host locality.
“Current state code tilts the gaming revenue heavily in favor of the Commonwealth over the locality,” county staff noted in the summary obtained by FFXnow.
Assuming the casino is part of a mixed-use development as proposed by advocates, other components like a hotel, event venue, restaurants and retail could increase the financial windfall to $29.1 million in annual local tax revenue, or $1.2 billion over 30 years, and $53 million annually for the state, or $2.2 billion over 30 years, according to the summary of MuniCap’s study.
The taxes would help Fairfax County diversify its revenue sources, something local government leaders have sought for years to reduce their reliance on ever-climbing real estate taxes, but the dent in the county’s budget would be relatively modest, amounting to less than one penny of the current property tax rate.
In comparison, County Executive Bryan Hill proposed a $5.7 billion budget for fiscal year 2027 on Tuesday (Feb. 17) that projected $135.8 million in revenue from the new meals tax that took effect on Jan. 1.
Fairfax County declined to make the full feasibility study available, stating that it “would be premature” to share the report in its current draft form.
“The document in question is a preliminary draft and has not yet been finalized, as it was conducted prior to this year’s General Assembly session,” a county spokesperson said. “… If or when legislation passes the General Assembly pertaining to a casino, the study would have to be finalized based on the details of the bill.”
The Virginia Senate voted 23-14 last Friday (Feb. 13) to pass a bill from Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell that would add Fairfax County to the state’s list of localities eligible to host a casino.
The Senate’s finance committee had amended Senate Bill 759 to strip out criteria limiting a possible casino site to Tysons, but before it passed the full chamber, Surovell added back in a requirement that the gaming facility be “part of a coordinated mixed-use project development consisting of no less than 1.5 million square feet.”
“That could include a concert venue, a conference center, a hotel, entertainment district, IMAX, a center for sporting events, things like that, which is typically how projects of that size are designed and constructed,” Surovell said when presenting the legislation to the Senate.
Revenue estimates differ from state and developer forecasts
MuniCap’s tax revenue estimates for a casino in Fairfax County are noticeably more conservative than those projected by a JLARC study requested by the General Assembly in 2019 and potential developer Comstock Companies, which has its eye on a vacant lot near the Spring Hill Metro station in Tysons.
Primarily focused on Bristol, Danville, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Richmond, the five localities where Virginia lawmakers were considering authorizing casinos, the JLARC study predicted that a Northern Virginia casino could bring in $155 million more in gaming tax revenue and retain about $100 million that Virginia residents spend at casinos in other states. The study didn’t specifically analyze Fairfax County as a host.
Though Comstock hasn’t publicly released its projections, Fairfax County’s feasibility study suggests the developer looked at MGM National Harbor in Maryland as a model. Opened in December 2016, the casino hotel generated $823.7 million in gaming revenue in fiscal year 2024 and $838.4 million in FY 2025, per Maryland Lottery and Gaming data.
Looking at the FY 2024 figures with fiscal year 2025 still underway at the time, Comstock projected in February 2025 that a Fairfax County casino equivalent to MGM National Harbor would generate $209.1 million in annual tax revenue, contributing $149.2 million to the state and $59.9 million to the county.
For its feasibility study, MuniCap appears to have relied on revenue numbers from Virginia’s operating casinos in Bristol, Portsmouth and Danville, which respectively grossed $182 million, $309 million and $240 million in 2025 through September.
With temporary casinos opening in Norfolk last November and Petersburg in January, the state’s casinos generated $81 million in gaming revenue last month, good for $14 million in tax revenue, Virginia Lottery reported.
In a statement to FFXnow, Surovell (D-34), who represents southeastern Fairfax County, argued that the county’s feasibility study appears to have “used extraordinarily conservative assumptions” when coming up with its revenue projections.
“Five years ago, JLARC estimated that a [Northern Virginia] project would recapture at least $100M of gaming revenues that are currently going to [other states] and would attract significant out-of-state revenues which is inconsistent with the consultant’s assumption that a NOVA casino would only be 70% as successful as MGM National Harbor,” he said by email.
He noted that the study doesn’t address other revenue sources, such as property, hotel, admissions, sales and meals taxes, when assessing potential local impacts.
“Also, this study did not seem to assume an accompanying events complex or convention center or consider any of the revenues that would be generated by attracting conventions to Fairfax County which are key parts of the proposal,” he said.
According to the county’s summary, MuniCap based its study on a theoretical 396,629-square-foot development, which would be much smaller than the 1.5-million-square-foot project required under Surovell’s proposed legislation. The study didn’t include any residential development in its assumptions, focusing only on commercial space.
In addition to a casino with 1,490 slot machines and 75 table games, the study envisioned 55,796 square feet of food and beverage space, 6,200 square feet of other retail space, a 300-room hotel and an event venue with 2,250 seats. For comparison, MGM National Harbor has a 308-room hotel and a 3,000-seat theater.
Comstock, meanwhile, proposed 900 hotel rooms and 5,500 seats in an event venue, per the county’s summary.
In the summary, county staff say the jobs created by a casino development could “further diversify our employment structure,” with MuniCap estimating that the project would directly or indirectly result in 2,466 permanent jobs and 918 temporary construction jobs.
“County staff need some additional time to summarize the local government cost impacts and job impact details,” the summary says, noting that health, human services and transportation impacts weren’t considered.
Senators rehash pro and anti-casino arguments
Surovell, who introduced a similar casino bill last year that was tabled by the House of Delegates, maintains that a casino development could shore up Fairfax County’s shrinking commercial tax base, while benefitting the state as a whole by generating revenue for a school construction fund.
“If the County had said yes to this four years ago, they would not be forced to raise their highest-in-Northern Virginia real estate taxes on Fairfax County’s homeowners, renters and businesses this year,” Surovell told FFXnow. “The time to act is way overdue.”
Hill’s advertised FY 2027 budget plan would hold the real estate tax rate at $1.1225 per $100 of assessed value, but rising home values mean residential property owners can still expect to pay $357 more on average.
Three other Northern Virginia senators — Jennifer Boysko (D-38), Barbara Favola (D-40) and Adam Ebbin, who resigned as of Wednesday (Feb. 18) — all spoke against the casino bill when it was on the Senate floor last week, citing continued opposition from community members and the fact that, unlike in other localities with a casino, Fairfax County leaders didn’t seek out the authority.
The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors narrowly voted in December to oppose any bill allowing a casino unless it requests one. Its objections include the uneven tax revenue split between the state and locality, though Surovell told the Senate that the board hasn’t proposed an alternative.
“I’m happy to have that conversation as soon as the Board of Supervisors chooses to engage in it,” he said.
Favola, who represents Arlington County, argued that the lack of engagement by the supervisors reflects their disinterest in obtaining the authority to host a casino.
“When other jurisdictions came to the state asking for authority for a casino, they were united. They had already had a plan. They knew what they wanted. They were ready to move forward,” Favola said. “That is not the case with this proposal. This is not fully cooked.”
Boysko said she’s regularly stopped by constituents and even her doctor urging her not to approve SB 956.
“If we have a gaming commission or some other body that can independently verify the numbers that the senator from eastern Fairfax County is talking about, I think that’s the right step,” she said. “But just us pushing this onto the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, it will not pass a referendum. It is a very distressing political issue for all of us who live in that area.”
Sponsored by Fairfax Del. Paul Krizek (D-16), a bill to establish a Virginia Gaming Commission to regulate all gambling in the state passed the House of Delegates 90‑7 on Tuesday, enabling it to be considered by the state Senate.
As of press time, Surovell’s casino bill hadn’t been assigned to a House committee yet, but the Virginia Department of Planning and Budget released a fiscal impact statement yesterday that said the state doesn’t expect any impacts unless and until a referendum is approved.
If SB 756 passes the House and is signed by Gov. Abigail Spanberger, it would be up to the Board of Supervisors to schedule a referendum, which must win the support of a majority of Fairfax County voters in order for casino operators to compete for a license and pursue a development.
