It’s something that hasn’t been seen in nearly five years: A large percentage of the federal workforce exclusively back in the office — with many using Metro to get there.
But the incoming Trump administration has signaled it plans a major back-to-the-office push, and Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) leaders are watching carefully to see how it plays out.
Any impact would not only affect ridership, but also WMATA’s next budget, which got a preview at a meeting of the Metro board’s Finance and Capital Committee last Thursday (Nov. 21).
“We’re being conservative. The expectation is that if [federal workers] do come back, we’ll have a little more revenue,” WMATA Chief Financial Officer Yetunde Olumide told the board of directors.
Olumide noted that federal return-to-work policies “remain decentralized, up to each agency,” much to the chagrin of D.C. and regional leaders who have pushed for back-to-the-office efforts to support everything from transit to restaurants and retail and the property values of commercial office buildings.
Local leaders, who are virtually all Democrats, may find an unlikely ally on this issue in the Trump administration, which has signaled interest in getting the federal workforce back in the office on a more regular basis.
“Federal workers are coming back,” WMATA board member Paul Smedberg predicted at last week’s committee meeting. The board’s first vice chair, he also represents the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission on WMATA’s governing body.
Any additional growth could be incremental and perhaps less sizable than might be expected. A recent, 3,000-page report from the Office of Personnel Management concluded that federal workers are not teleworking at rates significantly different from those in similar capacities in the private sector.
There’s also the potential that some federal employees might retire or leave, rather than abide by a full return to offices — a trend that the new Trump administration appears to be counting on as part of its plan to drastically shrink the federal workforce.
But mandating federal workers to be in the office all the time could add to a rebound in Metro service, which, like all U.S. transit, saw passenger counts decimated by the Covid pandemic.
As more people return to the office regularly, many commuters currently driving in their personal vehicles could shift back to using transit if roadway congestion returns with a vengeance or toll prices skyrocket.
According to a Federal Transit Administration study looking at the first nine months of 2023, the nation’s 26 largest urban areas saw transit ridership ranging from 55% to 80% of pre-pandemic levels. The D.C. region, led by a rebound in bus service, was slightly higher than that group’s average passenger return.
The trend is continuing, WMATA leaders say.
“Every day and every week, more people are back on the system,” Metro General Manager Randy Clarke said. “the region keeps moving forward.”
The system is primed to accommodate future growth in 2025, according to Tom Webster, WMATA’s chief of planning and performance.
“There some tools available,” he said, including swapping in eight-car trains where six-car trains previously had been used.
For the first quarter of Metro’s fiscal year 2025, running July 1 to Sept. 30, rail ridership was up 7% year-over-year to 32.2 million, while bus ridership was up 12% to 31.9 million, according to figures presented at the meeting.
Revenue also is up 33% year-over-year for rail and 6% year-over-year for bus.
