Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) could face a significant funding gap as county leaders weigh a budget proposal that falls short of what the school system requested, while looming federal policy changes threaten to cut millions in aid.
On Tuesday (Feb. 18), County Executive Brian Hill unveiled a proposed budget for Fiscal Year 2026 that includes $125.3 million in additional funding for schools, with $118.6 million going directly to FCPS’ operating budget.
However, that’s less than half of the $268.3 million Superintendent Michelle Reid says is needed to give teachers and staff raises, expand student support and cover other school expenses.
While FCPS leaders work to close the budget gap, At-Large School Board member and budget chair Kyle McDaniel says the bigger concern is federal funding. The Trump administration has warned that schools that don’t comply with its new policies — including a ban on transgender female athletes in girls’ sports, restrictions on diversity and equity programs, and limits on services for undocumented students — could lose federal aid.
For FCPS, that puts $168.1 million in federal aid on the line — money that funds free and reduced-price meals, special education and student support programs. If that money is cut, the county may have to fill the gap, potentially diverting funds from teacher salaries and other services to keep those programs running.
“Where do we come up with that funding? That’s now going to add an extra layer of complication onto an already tight budget season,” McDaniel told FFXnow.
The fallout of federal cuts
Since taking office, the Trump administration has put school systems nationwide on notice that failure to align with its policy goals could result in federal funding losses.
Last month, the White House issued a two-page memo attempting to freeze federal aid for programs the administration viewed as inconsistent with its agenda, including diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. A federal judge temporarily blocked the order on Jan. 28, citing concerns over executive overreach, but agencies have reportedly continued to withhold funds in violation of court orders.
For the current fiscal year 2025, roughly 68,000 students in Fairfax County rely on free or reduced-price meals, a program backed by $58 million in federal funds. Another $51 million supports special education programs, while $56.5 million funds multilingual learning initiatives and workforce training. If that money is cut, FCPS could be forced to absorb the costs locally or make cuts to essential programs, McDaniel says.
“It’s chaos, and … there’s no predictability,” he said. “So, projecting ahead even two weeks, much less three months, is a very difficult thing to do in budgetary terms.”
If the funding freeze is upheld or expanded, FCPS could face tough budget decisions, particularly for low-income students, English learners and students with disabilities.
The school system has reserves to fund the free and reduced-price meals program for about three months. McDaniel says FCPS would find a way to keep feeding students even after that runs out — but it would come at a cost.
Redirecting local tax dollars to cover lost federal support could force difficult trade-offs, according to McDaniel, potentially leading to larger class sizes, fewer resources for students and scaled-back teacher raises.
“If the free and reduced [meal] funding is gone… That’s $60 million. Where do we come up with that funding?” he said.
A strained county budget
Even without the federal funding uncertainty, Fairfax County is struggling to close an estimated $292.7 million budget shortfall — the second year in a row it has faced a major financial gap.
Hill’s $5.7 billion budget proposal attempts to balance rising costs with slowing revenue growth, but it still required nearly $60 million in spending reductions, the most since fiscal year 2010.
To help bridge the shortfall, Hill has proposed:
- A 1.5-cent real estate tax increase, adding $50.9 million in revenue but increasing the average homeowner’s tax bill by $638
- Cutting 208 county positions and some programs, such as high school crossing guards, totaling $59.8 million
- A 2% increase in the transient occupancy or hotel tax, expected to bring in $13 million
Additionally, Hill pointed out that home values continue to rise, giving the county $197.5 million in additional revenue at the current real estate tax rate.
A 3 or 4% food and beverage tax is also under consideration, though if approved, it would take effect in January 2026 instead of at the beginning of fiscal year 2026 on July 1. A 4% tax would generate $65.1 million over half a year, Hill estimated.
Even with these changes, McDaniel worries the county may be underestimating future financial pressures, particularly if federal funding cuts materialize or other county services require additional resources.
“We absolutely are planning for the worst,” McDaniel said.
Supervisors balk at tax hikes
With rising property assessments already pushing up tax bills, some county supervisors are hesitant to approve additional tax increases, citing concerns about affordability for residents.
Chairman Jeff McKay called the proposed 1.5-cent real estate tax increase “far too high,” warning that federal policy shifts pose a greater long-term risk to Fairfax County’s economy than the COVID-19 pandemic.
“What is happening right now with our federal employees, federal contractors, [and] office space that will be directly affected by what’s happening in Washington, D.C. is a much higher risk to Fairfax County than Covid ever was,” McKay said during Hill’s budget presentation on Tuesday. “We are specifically [a] target with these federal government reductions.”
While the 1.5-cent tax hike may seem modest, it would increase the average homeowner’s tax bill by $638, a burden for residents already struggling to stay in their homes amid job losses, McKay noted.
“People are going to be losing their jobs, trying to stay in their homes because of a reckless, un-targeted attack on the bread and butter of our economy in Fairfax County,” he said. “We need to factor that in and help people be able to keep a roof over their head.”
With the Trump administration’s push to downsize the federal government potentially affecting thousands of residents and businesses, Fairfax County launched a webpage this week with resources for newly laid off workers, and the Board of Supervisors urged Gov. Glenn Youngkin to take a similar step at the state level.
FCPS also faces some uncertainty when it comes to state funding, as the General Assembly is still working to finalize an updated budget.
“The Senate and House budgets include a range of numbers that we’re going to be watching very closely,” he said. “It’s way over time for [the General Assembly] to do their part to help FCPS too.”
The county and school boards will hold a joint budget meeting on Tuesday, Feb. 25 to discuss potential solutions. Public hearings on the county budget are scheduled for April, with a final vote expected in May.
