For the immediate future at least, further expansion of rail lines across the D.C. region is likely to take a back seat to more modest upgrades to transit service moving forward.
That seemed to be a consensus, albeit not a unanimous one, as members of the regional DMV Moves task force met Monday (March 24) to narrow options for improving the area’s transit — and paying for a Metro system that’s now estimated to cost between $450 million and $600 million more per year.
The regional body is sponsored by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) and the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA). First convened on June 10, 2024, the task force is expected to lay out its recommendations for dedicated transit funding scenarios in May.
At yesterday’s meeting, task force members focused mostly on ways to improve both rail and bus service without breaking the bank, but some participants continued to urge a swing-for-the-fences approach.
Pushing hardest for more rail lines and stations was state Sen. Scott Surovell (D-34).
“That piece of the discussion has just vanished,” Surovell said.
Without the promise of additional service on the rail side, he argued it would be hard to get buy-in from the community.
“The ‘haves’ keep their rail system; everybody else has to ride a bus,” he said of the message being sent. “That, I don’t think, sells well politically.”
Beyond that, Surovell made the philosophical argument that a world-class community deserves a world-class transit system.
“I don’t know why it is we have to constantly have to settle for having less nice things than the rest of the world,” he said.
Tracy Hadden Loh, a D.C. representative on the WMATA board of directors, responded that swinging for the fences on transit service can’t be done without proper preparation.
“We’re just not ready to have the conversation, because we haven’t figured out how to [expand rail service] the way the rest of the world does it,” she said.
“If we want to expand rail, we have to learn how to do it without the assumption of infinite money, which is the only way we know how to do it now,” Loh said. “We do not want to invest billions or trillions as a region to build yesterday’s transit.”
Loh suggested that the region should make strategic and affordable investments now and “then take a deep breath and see where we are.”
Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich said there are alternatives to rail service that would draw in passengers while avoiding the capital expense involved.
“I would not mortgage my future to say everything needs to go into Metrorail,” he said.
Elrich pointed to his county’s experience with construction of the beleaguered Purple Line, a 16-mile east-west light-rail line now set to open in 2027 after multiple delays and a ballooning budget.
Metro’s extension of the Silver Line to Dulles International Airport and beyond encountered similar setbacks before finally opening in November 2022.
“We would have been over and done with building a bus rapid transit system if we had gone with that rather than going with the Purple Line,” Elrich said.
Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay also acknowledged financial limitations, particularly in Northern Virginia where localities bear a large cost of subsidizing transit.
“You don’t get to get everything,” he said. “Rail transportation is very expensive, and it also has other ramifications for existing rail.”
McKay said describing those who use bus service as “have nots” is not accurate.
“I’m going to reject the notion,” he said. “We’ve got to think about how bus is a part of the system and treat it fairly.”
Surovell responded that it wasn’t his intent to see rail service everywhere.
“That’s not realistic. I get that,” he said. But in some cases, it is better than traditional bus or bus rapid transit (BRT) service options, he contended.
“I’m not convinced BRT is the perfect solution everybody thinks it is,” Surovell said, suggesting sarcastically that politicians who push for BRT at the expense of car traffic lanes will “have fun at your re-election.”
Fairfax County has been working for years on plans for BRT lines in the Richmond Highway and Route 7 corridors, though construction has yet to begin in either case.
McKay suggested the various methods of transporting people are less pressing than the need to improve the overall passenger experience.
“What I hear mostly from my constituents, over the course of a decade, has been ‘Can you just get the system to work better?'” he said.
At the March 24 meeting, Metro officials floated a proposal to increase regional support for the transit system by an additional $450 million to $500 million per year starting in fiscal year 2028, with a 3% appreciation thereafter.
A separate proposal, more likely to be relegated to the nice-to-have category rather than a must, sought $50 million to $100 million more annually for bus network upgrades. If adopted, it also would start in FY 2028 and include a 3% ongoing annual increase.
WMATA General Manager Randy Clarke said the proposal would meet the transit agency’s needs while providing a revenue stream that could be counted on over the long term.
“Getting a little less money and getting that indexing and predictability is better than getting a little more money with no predictability,” he said.
The DMV Moves task force has been developing suggestions on ways to pay for transit, but no updates were discussed during the March 24 meeting. That challenge is expected to be a key focus point when the panel reconvenes on May 16.
