The ranks of unemployed Fairfax County residents ticked up nearly 8% month-over-month and 37% year-over-year in March, according to new state data, as Northern Virginia’s economy takes a hit from the federal government’s downsizing and collateral economic impacts.
A total of 20,836 Fairfax residents were counted as unemployed for March, according to figures reported this week by the Virginia Employment Commission. That compares to 19,315 in February and 15,171 in March 2024.
The county’s unemployment rate also moved higher: the rate of 3.2% for March was up from 3% a month before and 2.3% a year ago.
For March, Fairfax’s rate was equal to the statewide jobless rate of 3.2%. Typically, Fairfax trends below the statewide figure.
Fairfax’s rate was also higher than an increasing number of downstate localities, including Highland County (2.5%), Rockbridge County (2.7%) and Botetourt County (2.8%).
Fairfax wasn’t the only Northern Virginia jurisdiction to see an increase in joblessness in March. Rates stood at 3.1% in Loudoun County, 3.2% in both Arlington and Alexandria, and 3.3% in Prince William County.
Arlington took the biggest hit across the region with 4,929 unemployed residents representing a 60% jump year-over-year.
Statewide, the number of those unemployed is growing, with the 157,134 people without jobs and seeking work in March rising from 151,323 a month before and 124,266 a year ago. Those are increases of 3.8% and 26.5%, respectively.
Across the D.C. metropolitan area, March’s unemployment rate of 3.5% was up from 3.4% a month before and 2.9% a year ago, according to new figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The 125,867 metro-area residents counted as unemployed in that report represent an uptick of 3.6% from a month before and nearly 24% from a year ago.
Year-over-year unemployment rates were higher in March than a year earlier in 279 of the nation’s 387 metropolitan areas, lower in 72 areas and unchanged in 36 areas. The national unemployment rate in March was 4.2%, up from 3.9% a year earlier.
To be counted as unemployed in the monthly data, an individual must have had no employment, been available for work, and made an effort to find employment for four weeks leading up to the reference week, according to the Virginia Employment Commission.
The monthly data seem to confirm fears expressed by Northern Virginia business leaders about the trajectory of the local economic picture in a survey released this week by the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce and communications agency Pinkston.
The Northern Virginia Regional Commission estimates that approximately 12% of Northern Virginia residents are employed in the federal government, with the total amount varying by jurisdiction.
“The federal government budgetary cutback and job layoffs that the new presidential administration began implementing in January 2025 will have deep economic impacts on the region,” the regional body says.
The potential of economic stagnation at the local and national levels is also playing into the political conversation.
Donald Trump “inherited a strong economy and is running it into the ground with stupid and disastrous tariffs, as Republicans in Congress refuse to stop him,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-8) said after preliminary estimates released Wednesday (April 30) showed the national economy contracting in the first quarter of 2025.
“The economic warning lights are all flashing red,” said Beyer, the senior House Democrat on the congressional Joint Economic Committee.
The contraction had a number of factors, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the Commerce Department.
“The decrease in real gross domestic product in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in spending,” the bureau said. “These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending and exports.”
The impact of California wildfires in January also played a role in tamping down economic growth, the bureau’s analysts said.
