If Tysons continues to evolve from commercial suburb into Fairfax County’s urban core, as planners hope, it will need more than 10,000 new homes by 2040 to accommodate the influx of residents, a recently released study found.
Commissioned by the Tysons Community Alliance (TCA) and published on Dec. 3, the Future Housing Demand in Tysons report from consultant Jon Stover & Associates (JS&A) predicts Virginia’s population growth over the next two decades will remain concentrated in its metropolitan areas, with Tysons helping the northern region lead the way.
“Tysons is uniquely positioned to capture a meaningful share of the region’s long-term growth,” JS&A Managing Principal Jon Stover said in a press release on the report. “The community’s access to transit, jobs, retail, and cultural amenities makes it one of the most competitive markets in the Washington region. But maintaining that momentum will require continued attention to housing supply, affordability, and diversity.”
Under a “moderate growth” scenario based on U.S. Census numbers, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) projections and other data, Tysons is projected to add approximately 14,931 residents or 9,371 households over the next 15 years — resulting in a need for 10,318 net new housing units, according to the report.
That would amount to an annual increase in the population of 2.76%, below Tysons’ yearly growth rate from 2020 to 2023 (3.56%) but above what it would see if its pre-2020 rate (1.78%) resumed. Even under that “conservative” scenario, the report estimates Tysons would draw 8,783 new residents and need 6,069 additional homes by 2040.
The most “aggressive” scenario, which is based on a 3.88% annual growth rate that continues Tysons’ expansion under the comprehensive plan Fairfax County adopted in 2010, forecasts a demand for 16,082 new homes by 2040 to accommodate 23,272 future residents.
The moderate scenario that served as the report’s main focus would bring Tysons up to 44,522 residents in 2040. The most recent Census estimate in 2023 put the area’s population at 28,022 people, coming in below the 31,124 residents that Fairfax County staff reported that year for 2022.
With over one-third of current households earning over $200,000 annually, JS&A projects that Tysons will continue to skew toward middle- and high-income residents.
Over 70% of them will earn more than the area median income (AMI) — which is around $114,000 for one person, per Fairfax County’s 2025 affordable housing guidelines — and 31% will earn over $200,000, a similar percentage to other urbanized areas in the region like Ballston and downtown Bethesda.
However, as projected by a previous market study released by the TCA in 2023, there will still be a demand for housing to support people with lower incomes, including 800 more rental units and 250 more for-sale units for people earning 30% or less of the AMI.
“Considerable demand for lower-income housing exists but is constrained by supply limitations,” the report says. “That said, Tysons has seen considerable recent supply of income-restricted housing.”
There are 972 “affordable” homes under construction right now in Tysons for people earning 30-70% AMI, including 456 units in the Indigo at McLean Station development and 516 units in the Exchange at Spring Hill Station. PulteGroup also began construction this fall on the Flats at Tysons condominiums, which will have 86 units overall with 15 designated as workforce or affordable dwelling units.
Since 2010, developers have added 7,000 housing units in Tysons, and another 26,000 units have been approved by Fairfax County, according to JS&A’s study.
With future residents expected to be primarily composed of young professionals (adults under 35) and “established” adults aged 35 to 64, the report predicts that the biggest demand will be for one- and two-bedroom rental apartments, but a range of sizes and a mix of owned and rental units will be needed.
The report notes that seniors 65 and older “may be under-represented” in its projections, in part because new developments catering to that demographic — such as the Trillium at The Boro and The Mather in Arbor Row — opened recently enough that their tenants aren’t reflected in existing data.
According to the report, the existing housing pipeline in Tysons “aligns relatively well with moderate growth scenarios,” but units will have to be delivered consistently to meet long-term demand. It also suggests planners, developers and other stakeholders should consider the needs of families to figure out “how best to attract and retain households with children,” including by offering more varied housing types.
“As Tysons continues its transition from a suburban office hub to a vibrant, mixed-use community, understanding future housing demand is essential,” TCA Vice President of Strategy and Research Drew Sunderland said. “This study gives local leaders, developers, and community stakeholders a clear picture of who is coming to Tysons, what types of homes they need, and how we can support inclusive, sustainable growth in the decades ahead.”
The full report, including more details on Tysons’ recent development and demographic shifts, can be found on the TCA’s website.
