Apartment rents across the D.C. region are high, but a new data analysis suggests they likely would have been even pricier had the COVID-19 pandemic not intervened.
August’s median regional rent across the D.C. region was about 2.5% below what it would have been had Covid not upended the rental market in the early 2020s, according to projections reported Sept. 24 by Apartment List.
Apartment List analysts said the median overall apartment rent of $2,174 regionwide in August would have been $2,229 had the market continued on the 2.5% national growth rate recorded from 2017 to 2019.
The analysts used that 2.5% rate as a baseline to compare how major metropolitan areas, states and cities have fared over the past six years.
Of the nation’s 25 most populous metro areas, 12 currently have median rents higher than had there been a steady 2.5% annual appreciation since 2017, according to the analysis. The remaining 13, including the D.C. metro area, had lower rents than would have been expected with no pandemic.
“Rents may have skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, but the gradual cooldown of the ensuing years has now offset those increases to the extent that the national median rent has converged back to a long-run trend of slow and steady growth,” Apartment List analysts said.
The impacts of the pandemic are most pronounced in the nation’s most urban areas, which saw a sharp decline in 2020 followed by a comeback — sometimes a rapid one — as the country began to get back on its feet.
Nationally, the Apartment List analysis suggests the pandemic’s longterm impact on apartment costs is close to nonexistent. The median national rent in August was $1,390, just $5 below what it would have been had a stable 2.5% growth rate been the norm since 2019.
But what a ride it has been to get to that point.
“Since 2020, the rental market has whiplashed between skyrocketing rents and price declines, and those alternating hot and cold spells have now offset each other,” Apartment List analysts wrote.
Yet some areas have seen significant deviations from what would have been expected in a non-Covid world.
In the Buffalo, N.Y., metropolitan area, the median rent is 37% higher than it would have been had rents increased at historic norms, but in the Austin, Texas, metro rents are 15% below that expected level.
Across the D.C. metro area, the median apartment rent was reported by Apartment List as $1,849 in February 2020, immediately before the pandemic arrived. By January 2021, the region’s median rent had declined to $1,721 before beginning a sustained, if bumpy, comeback.
Median rents across Fairfax County in August were above the regional median, with the county’s rates standing at $2,073 for one-bedroom units, $2,401 for two bedrooms and $2,419 overall.
The overall countywide rate was down slightly from the $2,442 recorded in August 2025 and from the all-time countywide monthly peak of $2,471 reported in June 2025.
Among various areas of the county in August:
- Annandale: Median rents for August were $1,864 for one-bedroom units, $2,127 for two bedrooms, down 6.2% year over year
- Centreville: Median rents were $2,068/$2,403, down 1.9%
- Fair Oaks: Median rents were $2,184/$2,442, down 4.7%
- Fairfax City: Median rents were $1,918/$2,195, down 2.4%
- Herndon: Median rents were $1,870/$2,244, up 0.4%
- Reston: Median rents were $2,253/$2,385, up 0.2%
- Tysons: Median rents were $2,415/$2,895, down 0.3%
The September rental report is expected to be released over the coming week.
