A soft autumn could leave the 2026 Fairfax County homes market with fewer sales than in 2025.
Home sales totaled 810 countywide in October, down 21.7% from a year before, according to figures reported Nov. 10 by Bright MLS, the region’s multiple-listing service.
For the first eight months of the year, home sales had been running slightly ahead (+2.1%) of a year before. But with drop-offs in September and now October, the market could well end the year at a deficit compared to 2025.
That happening would not surprise Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS’s chief economist, who is anticipating cool conditions to end the year.
“The Washington, D.C., area housing market will continue to be sluggish through the end of the year, as many prospective homebuyers and sellers hold out for better conditions in 2027,” Sturtevant said.
“Buyers who remain in the market will have more leverage as sellers will be more likely to drop asking prices and offer concessions during the last two months of the year,” she added.
In October, the median county sales price was $739,450, down 0.7% from a year before.
For the week ending Nov. 8, owners cut prices for 9.8% of Fairfax homes on the market. That’s essentially unchanged from 9.7% a year before and compares to 9.2% in Arlington and 11.6% in Alexandria.
For the week, showings across Fairfax County were down to 3,126 from 3,586 a year ago, while active listings were up to 2,095 homes versus 1,500 a year before.
Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. All October 2026 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
Fairfax City records higher sales, prices
In the City of Fairfax, there were 19 sales during the month, up 19% from a year before, while the median sales price rose 6.2% to $860,000.
Because of the lower number of sales, the city tends to have more exaggerated swings up and down than larger jurisdictions.
In October, the median days on the market for homes that found a buyer was 14, up from 11 a year before.
For the week of Nov. 8, there were 127 home showings in the city, up from 106 a year before. That same week, 8.2% of sellers in the city dropped their asking prices, down from 12.9% a year ago.
Region reports decline in sales, prices
Home sales across the D.C. metro region totaled 4,224 in October, down 19.2% year-over-year, while the overall median sales price of $625,000 was down 0.8% — marking the first annual drop in more than three years.
“However, price trends were mixed across the region, with many local markets still posting gains,” Bright MLS noted in its monthly report.
For the month, the median regional sales price of a single-family detached home was up 2% to $826,000, while the median price for townhouses dipped 0.8% to $595,000. The median regional sales price for condominiums was $375,000, down 5.1%.
Where is the market headed across the metro area? According to Bright MLS:
“There are few, if any, signs that market conditions will change in the months ahead. Home sales activity across the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to be sluggish through the end of the year. Inventory will increase. though no significant price drops are expected in most markets across the Bright MLS area, as both buyers and sellers are retreating.”
National market waiting on lower interest rates
Elevated interest rates are impacting the local market and having an effect nationally, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.
“Homes are staying on the market a little longer than before,” Yun said, urging sellers to be realistic about existing conditions.
If the economy stabilizes and interest rates decline, the national market would be primed for a strong start to the new year, Yun believes.
“Affordability is tough, but people’s incomes are rising, and if somehow mortgage rates go down, think about the potential housing demand that could be released to the marketplace,” he said.
Yun said a rebound in consumer confidence would also be key. Consumer sentiment has fallen to roughly half its 2000 level, even as the economy has added jobs.
“If we can boost confidence levels, maybe that can also change the dynamics,” Yun said.
