The number of Fairfax County residents reported as unemployed spiked 24% year-over-year in September jobs data delayed by the federal government shutdown.
A total of 621,315 county residents were counted as employed in the civilian workforce, with 20,897 reported unemployed, according to figures reported Dec. 18 by the Virginia Department of Workforce Development and Advancement.
The resulting unemployment rate of 3.3%, while down from 3.8% in August due largely to seasonal trends, represented a 2.6% increase from a year before.
The year-over-year change in the number of people counted as unemployed was even more stark, growing from 16,817 a year before.
That 24% increase in unemployed individuals, while significant, was on the low end for D.C.’s inner Northern Virginia suburbs, where rates are up 33% in Alexandria, 34% in Arlington and a whopping 54% in Falls Church.
Local, regional, state and national jobless data normally is reported four or five weeks after the month in which figures are collected. The federal shutdown, which began Oct. 1 and lasted seven weeks, led to the lag in September data.
Federal officials don’t plan to provide a report for October, but expect to deliver November’s data in early January.
Statewide, the September non-seasonally-adjusted jobless rate of 3.4% represented 4.35 million Virginians employed and just under 150,956 seeking jobs.
Though down from August, unemployment was up from 2.9% in September 2024, when there were 4.45 million employed Virginians and those seeking work totaled slightly more than 133,074.
The outgoing Youngkin administration tried to put the data in a positive light.
“Virginia’s job market continues to demonstrate sustained strength, with more than 270,000 jobs added since this administration began,” Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) said in a statement accompanying the September figures. “Employment is rising, investment is accelerating, and opportunities continue to expand for Virginians.”
“Virginia’s long-term job growth remains solid,” Virginia Secretary of Labor Bryan Slater said. “Over the year, tens of thousands of Virginians have moved into jobs, and we will keep building on that progress by supporting workers, strengthening our talent pipelines, and ensuring every employer can find the skilled labor they need.”
Analysts see 10% local drop in federal workforce
However, a new report suggests the Trump administration’s efforts to downsize much of the federal workforce are likely to intensify employment and economic challenges in the region.
In its November economic report, the Stephen S. Fuller Institute of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University calculates that the D.C. region has seen a 5.9% decline in federal workers year-over-year, as of September.
Analysts now project that, locally, the reduction in federal workers has now topped 10%, given that preliminary data for October and November show a 10.8% year-over-year drop in federal employment nationally and the D.C. region’s declines have consistently surpassed the national figures throughout 2025.
About 380,000 people were employed locally in the federal workforce in November 2024, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. If the 10.8% national decrease is applied to the D.C. region, that would bring the number of federal workers for November 2025 down to 338,500, the Fuller Institute said.
“This suggests that the region lost roughly 41,500 federal jobs in 2025,” the analysts wrote. “However, given the steeper local declines throughout the year, the estimate of lost jobs is likely too low.”
But the analysts said it was wiser to wait until more data come in before issuing sweeping pronouncements:
“Given that the regional data provided here are estimated from national data, it is likely prudent not to extend the estimates too far to make broader conclusions. However, the national data make it clear that the severe contraction in federal employment will amplify, rather than buffer, any looming national recession.”
Back in the spring, when the so-called Department of Government Efficiency’s sweeping layoffs and contract cuts were in full swing, the Fairfax County Economic Development projected that a 10% reduction in the federal workforce would translate to more than 28,000 lost jobs in Fairfax County, a figure that includes contractors as well as people directly employed by the government.
The county had an estimated 80,000 residents working for the federal government, not including contractors, at the beginning of 2025.
Year-end data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to be available in early February, assuming the federal government doesn’t shut down again in the interim.
Metro area records bump up in unemployment
A day before the state figures were released, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics released metro-area jobless rates for September, also delayed by more than six weeks by the federal shutdown.
Across the Northern Virginia portion of the metro area, September’s jobless rate of 3.2% was up from 2.6% before and the number of those reported as unemployed (56,911) rose 21%.
In the D.C. region as a whole, the unemployment rate of 4.1% in September was up from 3% a year before, while the number of unemployed spiked 34% to 143,376. The increase was led by D.C. itself, where the number of unemployed rose 39% year-over-year.
Nationally, year-over-year unemployment was up in 275 metro areas, down in 83 and unchanged in 29. Forty-five metro areas had jobless rates of less than 3%, while eight had rates of more than 8%.
Among all metro areas, the lowest rate was recorded in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, at 1.8%. The highest was found in El Centro, Calif., at 21.5%.
Among the 56 metro areas with populations of more than a million, the lowest jobless rate for the month was in Honolulu (2.2%) with the highest in Fresno (7.5%).
Nationally, the non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in September was 4.3%, up from 3.9% a year before.
September 2025 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
