After several light-snow winters, transportation and weather experts are gearing up for yet another mild season in Northern Virginia.
The National Weather Service’s (NWS) D.C. and Baltimore office expects above-average temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, which likely means more ice and rain than snow this winter.
Chris Strong, an NWS spokesperson, explained that developing La Niña conditions — a natural cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that often leads to warmer, drier winters — typically bring mild winter weather. Still, he noted, the region could see some cold spells and winter weather events.
“La Niña conditions developing in the Pacific are not as strong as initially thought to be,” Strong said during a press briefing at the Virginia Department of Transportation’s Northern Virginia office today (Monday). “So, what that equates to is generally a milder-than-normal winter. But again, as a whole, as I always say, we do get our cold shots every winter. We’ll get our cold blast, but they will be fewer and not as long-lasting as some of our colder winters, like we had back in 2012.”
This forecast aligns with trends from the past decade, where winter temperatures in the region have tended to run above normal. This past January brought a snowstorm that affected the start of early voting for the 2024 presidential primaries in Fairfax County, but according to the NWS, it was still the seventh warmest winter on record for the D.C. area, with the previous winter ranking as the fourth warmest.
While above-average precipitation is expected in the Midwest and Great Lakes, Strong says the Mid-Atlantic will likely see near-normal precipitation. However, storm tracks are forecasted to favor the west, moving up the Appalachians rather than the East Coast.
This shift means the region is more likely to experience mixed precipitation, like freezing rain and sleet, rather than the larger coastal snowstorms. Strong pointed out that while minimal snowfall totals have been common this century, big snowfall winters still persist from time to time.
“What it comes down to individual storms at individual times that are going dictate what the seasonal snowfall total is,” Strong said. “We can have a mild winter where we have three days where winter comes together and we have … a higher than normal snowfall year in an otherwise mild year — that’s exactly what happened with our last mega blizzard in January 2016 when we had a mild winter and we had that one big storm.”
Even with the likelihood of fewer major snow events, VDOT isn’t taking chances. The agency has mobilized a fleet of more than 3,000 snow removal vehicles, including trucks, plows and spreaders, across Northern Virginia. VDOT has also stockpiled 120,000 tons of salt, 25,000 tons of sand, and 250,000 gallons of brine to pre-treat roads.
Although recent low snow levels have caused variations in fleet size, VDOT spokesperson Lauren Mollerup noted that the agency has nearly doubled its fleet over the past decade to enhance service.
“We used to do snow on 1,500-2,000 pieces of equipment, and this was way before telework and all the things, and we were stuck in our homes for two weeks at a time,” she said. “So, now I would say our level of service is probably better.”
