Elections have consequences, and now, Northern Virginia leaders are in wait-and-see mode on what those could be for local transit and transportation funding.
The Northern Virginia Transportation Commission (NVTC) board met Thursday (Nov. 7) for the first time since the 2024 general election, when Donald Trump regained the presidency and Republicans took control of at least one chamber of Congress — an unnerving prospect for Northern Virginia’s mostly Democratic political leaders.
“We need to step forward as leaders,” said NVTC chair Matt de Ferranti, who’s also a member of Arlington County’s all-Democratic board. He urged his colleagues to “rise above provincialism” to present a united front before the incoming Trump administration.
“The residents that we serve need public transportation,” de Ferranti said.
NVTC Executive Director Kate Mattice said little of the federal funding for regional transportation is at any short-term risk, but changes in leadership at federal transportation agencies “can make a huge difference” over time.
“There’s going to be a shift,” Mattice predicted.
Even with Trump’s victory, the 2024 election cycle held some positives for transit, according to Mattice. A number of localities across the U.S. ratified ballot initiatives providing additional funding for transit, thanks to “incredibly successful” efforts by advocates in those areas, she said.
The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) this year tracked 53 ballot measures this year, with 46 winning approval.
“The 2024 election has marked a significant step forward for public transportation,” the organization’s president and CEO, Paul Skoutelas, said.
The successes included Fairfax County voters’ approval of a bond referendum that will raise $180 million to help finance Metro-related improvements. The measure passed with 66% “yes” votes to 30% “no” votes, according to unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections.
“I don’t have a crystal ball,” Mattice said. “It’s just sort of watching the space and seeing what lands.”
Search for ‘long-term, sustainable’ regional transit funding continues
The possibility of a federal government more hostile to transit funding is likely to heighten the urgency Northern officials feel to find permanent revenue streams at the local and state levels.
“A long-term, sustainable, dedicated funding solution for our region” is needed, Hunter Mill District Supervisor Walter Alcorn said at the NVTC meeting.
A study committee empaneled earlier this year by the Virginia General Assembly continues to mull potential revenue sources for transit, which could include anything from a regional income tax to increased gas and sales taxes.
The committee is expected to finalize up to 15 possibilities this week that will be presented as an “expanded menu of revenue options,” according to NVTC Director of Policy and Programs Andrew D’huyvetter.
A more robust dissection of “the path ahead” will then be presented next month, said state Sen. Adam Ebbin (D-39), who patroned the legislation to establish the joint subcommittee, and now chairs it.
“We’ve got important work to go,” Ebbin said when briefing NVTC on the committee’s work.
The 10-member public transit joint subcommittee includes seven Virginia legislators, NVTC’s executive director and two citizen members. It is slated to compile reports that will be presented to the General Assembly before the start of the 2025 and 2026 sessions.
Authorization from state legislators and, possibly, local voters would be needed to provide additional funding streams for Metro, local bus networks and the Virginia Railway Express.
Once the draft “menu” of possible funding options is ratified, it will be turned over to a consultant that will be hired to vet it and report back sometime in 2025.
Several NVTC members said that before attempting to seek more money from the public, local leaders need to do a better job advocating for local transit and the institutional improvements that have come in recent years.
“We’re accused of being inefficient, but we don’t promote things that we’re doing to be more efficient,” Del. Mark Sickles (D-17) said. “People don’t know about them if we don’t tell them.”
Arlington County Board Chair Libby Garvey agreed that positive messages from local transit agencies seldom seem to filter down to the public.
“We’re really horrible at it,” she said.
NVTC officials are also putting the finishing touches on a wish list for the upcoming General Assembly session. After lawmakers approved increased transit funding in their 2024 session, the 2025 session that starts in January likely will see no expanded funding initiatives proposed.
“There isn’t a heavy ask,” Alexandria City Council member Canek Aguirre said of NVTC’s 2025 legislative package, which is expected to be finalized and get a vote on Nov. 5.
But come 2026, the situation could be different. Last month, de Ferranti urged his colleagues on the NVTC to swing for the fences in pushing an expanded transit agenda, and NVTC transit program manager Daniel Knickelbein said the body is gearing up for “a much larger ask” of the legislature in 2026.
