Fairfax County’s homes market saw year-over-year upticks in sales and prices in 2024.
A total of 11,787 properties changed hands during the year, according to preliminary figures reported by Bright MLS, the region’s multiple-listing service.
That’s up 5.1% from the 11,218 sales recorded in 2023.
Year-over-year sales prices also rose across Fairfax under three key metrics:
- The average sales price of $858,057 was up 8.6%.
- The median sales price of $730,000 was up 7.4%.
- The average price per square foot of $367 was up 6.1%.
The past year saw the home-buying public get used to mortgage-interest rates that spiked from historic lows to historically average and in some cases above average rates. In November and December, rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.75%, about on par with long-term norms.
“Buyers have re-anchored their expectations and have come to terms with the ‘new normal’ for rates,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS. “Over the past year, rates have been above 7%, and even close to 8%, so buyers now think a rate in the mid-6’s is pretty good.”
But many homeowners are still opting to stay put and reap the rewards of those ultra-low interest rates obtained during the Covid era.
As a result, there are opportunities and challenges in the new year, according to Bright MLS analysts:
“As we move into 2025, there is significant pent-up demand in the D.C. metro area housing market, but there are also headwinds. Inventory is likely to remain low across the region and affordability is a major constraint for many buyers. There is also uncertainty around federal-government employment in the region, which will be important to watch in the months ahead.”
But time will work in favor of a more balanced market going forward, the analysts added:
“Changing family and financial circumstances will prompt more homeowners to sell their home, despite having to give up their super-low mortgage rate. In a recent nationwide survey of homeowners conducted by Bright MLS, the group most likely to sell in 2025 is younger homeowners in their 30s and 40s, and the most common reasons for selling are family or job changes.”
Bright MLS’s catchment area in the Mid-Atlantic is about 80 counties and cities including the District of Columbia and Delaware and portions of Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Across the entire coverage sales, sales for the year totaled 223,275, up 2.5% from 2023, median prices were up 6.5% to $410,000, average prices rose 6.8% to $505,873, and the average sales price per square foot was up 5.1% to $249.
Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. All 2024 figures are preliminary and subject to revision.
In December, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors and the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University released their 2025 housing forecast. For Fairfax County, both sales and prices are expected to outpace 2024:
- In the single-family market, home sales are expected to rise 5.7% from 2024 figures, with median sales price up 1.5% and inventory up 3.4%.
- In the townhouse market, sales are expected to rise 2.9%, median sales prices 3.9% and inventory 6%.
- In the condominium sector, sales are expected to rise 0.9%, median sales prices 3.5% and inventory 3.6%.
Year-Over-Year apartment rents also ticked up
Apartment rents across Fairfax County also closed out 2024 higher than a year before, even as the national rental market posted a slight overall decline.
Tysons had the priciest median rental rate among the 29 locales in the D.C. region tracked by Apartment List. Its median rental rates of $2,344 for one-bedroom units and $2,810 for two bedrooms — $2,578 overall — equated to a 2.6% year-over-year increase.
Among other Fairfax County sub-markets tracked by the firm:
- Annandale had median rental rates of $1,848 for one-bedroom units, $2,109 for two bedrooms, a year-over-year increase of 1.2%.
- Centreville ($2,019/$2,345) was up 6.2%.
- Fair Oaks ($2,163/$2,418) was up 4.3%.
- Fairfax ($1,883/$2,155) was up 5.2%.
- Herndon ($1,757/$2,109) was up 3.8%.
- Merrifield ($2,283/$2,806) was up 3%.
For the D.C. region as a whole, the median overall apartment-rental rate to close out 2024 was $2,146, up 3% from a year before.
Nationally, the median rental rate of $1,373 to close out 2024 was down 0.6% from the end of 2023 and was at its lowest rate since early 2022. Despite the cooldown, the typical rent price remains 20 percent higher than pre-Covid levels.
“As moving activity picks back up in the new year, we are likely to see these monthly [national] declines moderate and then flip back to positive growth in the coming months,” Apartment List analysts said.
