Fairfax County Public Schools needs $2.6 billion over the next decade to address renovations and construction projects already in its pipeline, school officials say.
While $428 million is available from past bond referendums, it’s far from enough to cover the school system’s current priorities, which were laid out in a draft Capital Improvement Program (CIP) for fiscal years 2026-2030 presented to the Fairfax County School Board on Tuesday (Jan. 14).
The challenge becomes even greater if FCPS wants to speed up its renovation schedule, which has stretched out a targeted 25-year cycle for updating facilities to 41 years. In total, the school system is looking at a $14.4 billion price tag to address capital projects and restore a 25-year funding cycle — a figure that doesn’t include inflation, which could drive costs even higher.
“I feel like the board and our community really need to understand: this is what it would take… because of cost escalation and deferring and deferring, to actually get back on simply a 25-year cycle,” FCPS Superintendent Michelle Reid said.
How did FCPS get here?
The backlog of renovations and maintenance at FCPS has been years in the making, with inflation and supply chain disruptions significantly increasing project costs, according to facilities staff.
Also daunting is the sheer size of FCPS’s facilities portfolio, which includes more than 200 buildings, covering 28 million square feet.
“For perspective, FCPS has more than the equivalent of four Pentagons of space,” said Janice Szymanski, who oversees the district’s facilities and capital programs.
Many buildings, she says, are operating well beyond their intended lifespans, with critical repairs — such as HVAC replacements, roof repairs, and electrical system upgrades — long overdue. The current backlog of deferred maintenance has climbed to $244.6 million and continues to grow.
“Should current resources and funding remain constant, FCPS projects the [backlog’s] rate of growth increasing from 8.4% to 10% with a longer renovation cycle and the cost of construction continuing to rise,” Szymanski added. “The result is a projected backlog of over $635 million in the next 10 years.”
According to the draft FY 2026-2030 CIP, stagnant bond caps, escalating construction expenses and competing budget priorities — such as teacher salaries, program expansions, and transportation improvements — have limited FCPS’ ability to adequately address its growing infrastructure needs.
Szymanski noted that FCPS receives just $8.54 in funding per square foot — less than similarly sized school districts like Prince William County Public Schools and D.C. Public Schools, which receive $43.57 and $36.96 per square foot, respectively.
Increasing funding by just $3.58 per square foot — enough to match the second-lowest funded rival school system on the comparison chart — would require an additional $97.5 million in annual bond funding or alternative revenue, Szymanski says.
The projects in the proposed CIP
Right now, the CIP project list is largely unchanged from last year’s approved program. It includes renovations for 22 schools, including 18 elementary schools, two middle schools and two high schools, over a 10-year period, as well as modular building relocations to alleviate overcrowding at certain schools.
New construction projects are part of the plan as well:
- Dunn Loring Elementary School
- Silver Line Elementary School
- Western high school
- Route 1/Pinewood Lakes early childhood education center
- Tysons elementary school
- Pimmit Hills and Virginia Hills repurposing
The Dunn Loring project, projected to cost $85.6 million, got the support of the Fairfax County Planning Commission on Wednesday (Jan. 15). The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors is scheduled to hold a public hearing on Feb. 4 for final approval.
The Silver Line Elementary School is expected to begin design work in 2031, with an estimated total cost of $93.8 million. Located at the intersection of Frying Pan Road and Sunrise Valley Drive, the future school will be part of Pomeroy Clark I’s “One Sunrise Valley” development near the Innovation Center Metro Station.
Declining enrollment sparks debate over investments
The long list of renovation, maintenance, and new construction projects comes even as FCPS projects a decline in student enrollment over the next few years.
Enrollment is expected to drop from 180,384 students in the 2024-25 school year to 177,778 by 2029-30, according to school officials. The decline is largely due to falling birth rates and an increase in multi-family housing developments, which typically yield fewer school-aged children.
Still, several school board members stressed that declining enrollment doesn’t mean reduced facilities costs.
“I heard someone say to me, ‘Well, if the enrollment’s going down, why do we need funding for renovations?'” Braddock District Representative Rachna Sizemore Heizer said. “Part of that is because it’s not a one-to-one for students in schools. There’s a lot of common school spaces that need to be renovated, regardless of whether the school’s at 100% capacity, 90% or 110%, and there’s also the impact of the community use.”
According to the CIP, three schools — Coates Elementary, Kilmer Middle and West Springfield High — are expected to face substantial capacity deficits of 115% or more by the 2029-2030 school year, though several others currently are exceeding their capacity or are projected to within the next five years.
Though it approved boundary studies for Coates and Parklawn elementary schools as part of last year’s CIP, the school board opted not to move forward with one for Glasgow Middle School, voting instead to review FCPS’ boundary adjustment policy.
An amended policy was approved on July 18, requiring the superintendent to conduct a divisionwide review of school boundaries. The Connecticut-based K-12 education consultancy firm, Thru Consultants, has been gathering feedback at community meetings since November and is expected to present its recommendations to the school board and superintendent early next year.
Residents and civic groups like the Great Falls Citizens Association (GFCA) expressed concerns during the boundary policy update about its potential impact on student stability, mental health and community connections.
Those concerns reemerged at a public hearing on Tuesday about the proposed CIP. Speakers argued the updated policy lacks transparency and adequate public engagement, while questioning the justification for large-scale renovation and construction projects amid projected declines in student enrollment.
“We acknowledge the challenges facing the school board and FCPS staff in addressing the dynamics of planning for county school facilities,” GFCA secretary and board member Jennifer Falcone said. “Because of the complexities involved, more time for more careful consideration of a CIP is necessary.”
School board members suggest reconsidering Dunn Loring project
Residents weren’t alone. During Tuesday’s work session on the CIP, At-Large School Board Representative Kyle McDaniel questioned the logic behind certain projects, such as the Dunn Loring Elementary School.
According to McDaniel, the CIP projects a 1,027-seat surplus in design capacity for four elementary schools surrounding Dunn Loring — Freedom Hill, Shrevewood, Stenwood and Westgate — by the 2029-2030 school year.
FCPS has projected that the Dunn Loring Elementary School, which will replace a former school building currently being used for administrative offices, will accommodate about 900 students.
“Simple math shows a 2,000-seat surplus,” McDaniel said. “I’m struggling with this… because when I look at these maps showing capacity issues across the county, I’m having a hard time justifying $86 million.”
Dranesville District Representative Robyn Lady questioned the Dunn Loring project’s prioritization over a Tysons elementary school, arguing that ongoing development and demographic shifts in Tysons may warrant greater urgency.
“As a Dranesville resident, I’m getting lots of questions about the urgency for a Dunn Loring versus the urgency for a Tysons elementary school,” she said.
McDaniel suggested further analysis and transparency are needed before committing taxpayer dollars to the project.
“I’m looking forward to some more information, hopefully, coming back to the board,” he said.
