When it comes to preserving economic development gains in challenging times, localities need to have strategies to play offense and defense, and Fairfax County has room for improvement in both cases, a consultant told the Board of Supervisors earlier this week.
Economic success is “not something to take for granted,” Camoin Associates CEO Rachel Selsky said at an economic initiatives committee meeting on Tuesday (March 25).
The county hired Camoin Associates to develop a 100-page report on its economic development and retention efforts — a task that’s now nearing completion.
According to Selsky and the firm’s senior vice president, Dan Gunderson, Fairfax County and the broader D.C. region are at risk of losing past gains to areas of the country where leaders are aggressively courting CEOs and entrepreneurs.
“It’s the fast [growing] and emerging counties we need to be aware of,” Gunderson said, suggesting county officials need to be “keeping the eye on what those competitor jurisdictions are doing.”
The Camoin analysis is comparing Fairfax County to six other large jurisdictions with similar demographics:
- Collin County, Texas, in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area
- Fulton County, Georgia., in the Atlanta metro
- Denver County, Colorado
- Montgomery County, Maryland
- Middlesex County, Massachusetts, in the Boston metro area
- Santa Clara County, California, in Silicon Valley
The firm developed 13 metrics to compare the regions. Based on them, Collin County finished on top, while Fairfax ranked third.
Being middle of the pack was nothing to be ashamed of, according to Gunderson.
“You’re comparing yourself with the best,” he said.
Based on the criteria evaluated, Fairfax ranked first among the seven in talent pools for both information technology and office headquarters personnel. It didn’t rank last in any category, but was sixth out of seven in investment attractiveness and innovation.
The study was conducted in 2024, before President Donald Trump took office for a second term on Jan. 20. While challenges to the D.C. region have since multiplied, analysts said Fairfax officials should not fear the worst.
“The opportunities for the future are in Fairfax County,” Gunderson said.
That may be true over the long term, but at the moment, Fairfax and the region are “facing an economic shock, an economic dislocation,” Braddock District Supervisor James Walkinshaw said.
Rebecca Moudry, director of the county’s Department of Economic Initiatives, noted that when the report was commissioned, “we could not have anticipated the remarkable shifts and threats.”
Challenges for the information technology sector in particular were adding up before the disruptions introduced by the Trump administration. While Fairfax’s efforts to retain corporate headquarters are doing well, the county and region are starting to lose market share in the IT, consulting and emerging technology arenas, Selsky said.
The D.C. region is projected to see an annualized growth rate in IT firms of about 4% by 2028, while in the metropolitan areas where competitor localities are found, that rate ranged from 9% to 22%, she said.
Other communities have cheaper housing, easier commutes and tax incentives that aren’t available or offered in Fairfax County that appeal to IT firms, according to Camoin Associates.
County officials need to focus their efforts first on keeping what the locality already has in place, Gunderson said.
“This is going to be as much a retention strategy as it has been an attraction strategy,” he said.
While the report isn’t completed yet, initial recommendations for making the county more economically competitive include enhancing its transportation and technology infrastructure, improving regional connectivity and branding, building a strong ecosystem for startups, and strengthening relationships with companies that already have local headquarters.
The report will also delve into how the county can deploy the resources of the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority and its Department of Economic Initiatives to address challenges.
Franconia District Supervisor Rodney Lusk asked how to best divide up responsibilities between the two agencies. That depends, the analysts responded.
“There are so many different ways to do this,” Gunderson said.
Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay said the presentation and the upcoming report will help focus the attention of county leaders.
“Our greatest concern is being stuck in neutral,” McKay said of economic development efforts. “I’m glad we went through this exercise.”
Providence District Supervisor Dalia Palchik voiced concern about a net out-migration of local residents aged 30 to 50. She noted that she was one of four siblings who grew up locally, but “none of the others chose to live here.”
“People are moving to Richmond or Atlanta or Texas — places where they can find housing,” Palchik said.
