A key indicator suggests Fairfax County’s housing market is not yet feeling the full effects of the region’s economic uncertainty, but both data and expert opinion suggest the market could be in for a bumpy ride in coming months.
The average per-square-foot sales price of homes that sold across the county in April was $375, up 1.9% from $368 a year before, according to figures reported last Monday (May 12) by MarketStats by Showing Time for Bright MLS, the D.C. region’s multiple-listing service.
That year-over-year rise compares to declines posted in Arlington and Loudoun counties and Falls Church City. Alexandria and Prince William County both saw increased prices.
Year-over-year growth in average per-square-foot costs suggests the Fairfax market is holding its own despite concerns about rising unemployment and other economic impacts from the Trump administration’s gutting of the federal government.
But in one possible warning sign, the $375 per-square-foot average for April was slightly below the $379 year-to-date figure for the first four months of sales in the county.
Typically, prices tend to rise as the spring market kicks in.
A variety of conflicting data makes it hard to get a full picture of the local market’s direction.
“Mortgage rates have come down a little since the beginning of the year, which is good for home buyers,” Bright MLS’s chief economist, Lisa Sturtevant, said. “But consumer confidence has fallen and people are feeling more anxious about the economy, which is holding some buyers back this spring.”
Fairfax County saw a total of 1,114 closed home sales in April, down 0.9% from 1,158 a year before. There have now been 3,255 transactions in 2025 so far, a 0.6% year-over-year increase.
Fairfax typically runs in the middle of the Northern Virginia pack in per-square-foot prices, trailing the inner suburbs but exceeding the outer suburbs.
That was true again this April, as the county’s figure of $375 compared to $550 in Falls Church, $521 in Arlington, $480 in Alexandria, $294 in Loudoun and $258 in Prince William.
Using per-square-foot costs to look at trends factors out monthly gyrations in smaller markets and in localities, like Arlington, where the ratio of sold single-family homes to condominiums in a given month can skew average sales prices.
For the Washington region as a whole, sales in April totaled 4,454, down 1.4% from a year before, according to Bright MLS figures.
The median sold price of $655,215 across the metro area was up 2.4% from a year ago regionwide. While a record high, the rate of growth was lower than the rate of 3.7% seen across the Mid-Atlantic — which itself is the slowest pace of annual appreciation in 22 months.
“It is currently shaping up to be a slower-than-typical spring housing market in many parts of the Bright MLS area,” the listing service said. “However, there is still a lot of uncertainty and conditions could change quickly.”
Inventory is increasing across the region, largely because homes are staying on the market slightly longer. The number of home showings across the D.C. metro area in April stood at 99,112, down 13% from a year before.
“Expect an unpredictable spring housing market that could extend well into summer as buyers wait for rates to fall further and for more certainty in the economy,” Sturtevant advised.
A monthly “flash survey” of members by the Virginia Realtors trade group also shows some mixed signals.
The survey, conducted online in late April, reported increasing buyer and seller activity as the winter market gave way to spring, but only a quarter of respondents expect buyer activity to be strong in three months, a point beyond the cyclical market peak of the year.
Asked where prices will be by mid-summer, 50% of survey respondents anticipated they’ll be higher, 16% lower and 30% essentially unchanged.
The monthly flash survey is conducted statewide and not broken down by various areas of the state.
Photo via Audrey Odom on Unsplash
