Virginia Railway Express (VRE) now has a road map taking it to mid-century. How many detours and speed bumps there might be along the way remains to be seen.
The Northern Virginia Transportation Commission (NVTC) voted 19-0 on July 17 to support the “VRE System Plan 2050,” replacing a plan adopted in 2014 that looked as far out at 2040.
The proposal anticipates $1.4 billion in capital needs for the duration of the program, both to modernize the existing system and provide expansion opportunities.
Platforms, parking, tracks, and fleet replacement and expansion are all part of the proposal. So, too, is potential expansion southward, with the Manassas Line continuing on to Culpeper and Fauquier counties and the Fredericksburg Line extending to Caroline and Hanover counties.
Nothing in the plan is set in stone, as the aspirations are likely to face economic and demographic challenges.
“It’s a very dynamic plan, and we will be able to change and modify the plan as, frankly, our external environment changes around us,” said VRE CEO Rich Dalton. “We want to be very responsive to that.”
The NVTC is one of two oversight bodies for the state railway system, the other being the Potomac & Rappahannock Transportation Commission. The two organizations each send representatives to VRE’s Operations Board, a nine-jurisdiction panel that oversees the management team led by Dalton.
Sara Bagley, an Alexandria City Council member who chairs the operations board, acknowledged that having the plan in place will help tee up a discussion of how to pay for the proposed improvements.
“We do want to project a growth vision, in part because it will help with the funding conversation,” she told the NVTC board’s executive committee before its July 17 regular board meeting.
At the executive committee meeting, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) first vice chair Paul Smedberg voiced concern that any fixed-rail system designed to connect outer suburbs with the central core faces challenges — including from the Trump administration’s push to move federal agencies out of D.C.
“As areas of the government shift to various locations, what does that mean for a group like VRE, which really built its ridership and service on federal workers?” Smedberg said. “People are asking these questions.”
Bagley said the 2050 plan is flexible enough to accommodate challenges like a changing workforce environment.
“This is a vision and not a budget,” she said. “There’s no money associated with this decision. A budget still gets passed every year — that’s where you really make the tweaks and can be responsive.”
The plan will “change with circumstances changing,” said David Snyder, a Falls Church City Council member and NVTC’s 2025 chair.
At the regular board meeting, Snyder echoed Bagley’s comments from the executive committee session.
“It’s an exciting plan and it does not commit to any particular project or financial commitment,” he said.
VRE ridership was decimated by Covid and the resulting, extensive shutdown of federal government offices. The rebound has been slow but relatively steady.
Average daily ridership was 11,354 in May, up from 6,961 a year before. However, VRE filled only about 11% of available seats during the month, forcing it to make up the lost rider revenue through subsidies.
For the first five months of the year, passenger fares recouped 20% of operating costs at VRE, according to new data.
The good news: That’s double the rate of a year before. The bad news: It remains well below the goal of 50% cost recovery sought by VRE leadership.
Dalton said local governments were a key part of the conversation as the 2050 plan was developed. A new phase of outreach will begin in earnest this fall, he said.
“We’re going to stand up essentially a road show and go around to the various jurisdictions,” said Dalton, who has led VRE since 2019.
