Northern Virginia leaders are treading cautiously with newly granted power to increase the sales tax in local jurisdictions.
Under the biennial state budget adopted in Richmond late last month, Northern Virginia localities now have the power to hold voter referendums to increase sales taxes by up to 1%, with the extra funding going to transportation, education or a combination.
“As a region, we should be looking at this, [but] as a region, this is something we need to talk a lot more about,” Hunter Mill District Supervisor Walter Acorn said at the July 2 Northern Virginia Transportation Commission (NVTC) board of directors meeting.
Alcorn said he believed that, at the moment, no local jurisdiction is “seriously considering” moving forward with a referendum — but it turns out that at least one is.
“Arlington is very seriously considering it,” said Maureen Coffey, a member of the Arlington County Board.
That may be news to many Arlington residents, as discussions to date seem to have occurred out of the public eye.
Coffey added that despite interest among some in that county’s power structure to authorize a referendum eventually, there is “absolutely no chance” it would happen this year.
“There are so many conversations that have to occur both internally and politically,” she said. “We’re in no way, shape or form prepared to move that quickly.”
Previously, only nine of Virginia’s 133 cities and counties had the authority to hold referendums increasing the local sales tax for school construction: Charlotte, Gloucester, Halifax, Henry, Mecklenburg, Northampton, Patrick and Pittsylvania counties and the city of Danville. Northern Virginia was not represented on the list.
Building on a failed state Senate bill, the budget expands that authority to all cities and counties, capping the increase at 1%, and gives Northern Virginia governments the power to use some of the funding for public transit as well.
Dedicated funding to support transit, including possible new taxes, was a priority for local leaders heading into the General Assembly’s 2026 session. However, state legislators ultimately declined to advance any of the bills seeking to provide Virginia’s share of the $460 million that regional leaders determined is needed annually for Metro and local bus systems.
At the NVTC meeting, Alexandria City Council member Canek Aguirre said a hodgepodge of local government responses to the new taxing authority would not benefit the region.
He urged efforts in coming months to come up with a singular strategy — perhaps with multiple localities holding concurrent referendums — to show legislators the local region is willing to address the funding issue locally.
“We need to send a unified message to Richmond,” he said. “It can’t just be one of us doing a one-off. It’s too critical.”
Aguirre stressed that local officials are “going to have to have a lot of frank conversations with each other to be sure we’re on the same page.”
Falls Church City Council member David Snyder, a former NVTC chair, said he supports “regional cohesion” in addressing the sales-tax issue.
“I couldn’t agree more,” he said, but a sense of regionalism may not be enough to spur localities into action.
“That’s one factor among many,” he said.
One veteran Northern Virginia Democratic insider said local elected leaders, nearly all Democrats, had reason to tread carefully.
The sales tax is regressive, the official told FFXnow, and local voters may not appreciate the rate rising from the current 6% to 7% on non-food purchases and up to 12% on prepared meals, depending on the jurisdiction.
As Northern Virginia’s largest and, in many ways, dominant locality, Fairfax County could hold the key to regional cohesiveness.
The seats of all 10 Fairfax supervisors will be on the ballot in November 2027, and as Alcorn told others at the meeting, the county government’s last three referendums aimed at providing additional funding for schools and education had a similar result.
“All three failed,” he said.
The county imposed a meals tax this year only after the General Assembly removed a requirement that the levy be approved by voters in a referendum.
Even in Arlington, where candidates and ballot questions supported by Democrats typically win by a 4-to-1 margin, there is no guarantee of voter approval, Coffey said.
Passage “is not a given, even in Arlington,” Coffey said.
“We have more than a 50/50 shot of being successful in Arlington, but it’s a massive investment of everyone’s time, energy and political capital — really having to build a movement to do it,” she said.
“We’re not taking a decision lightly,” said Coffey, who is likely to chair Arlington’s governing body in 2027.
Putting a referendum on the November 2027 ballot in Arlington would break with tradition, where bond issues and other controversial measures typically are addressed in even-number years to benefit from higher voter turnout to overwhelm pockets of fiscal conservatism sprinkled throughout the electorate.
Holding a vote in November 2027 likely would see the lowest turnout of the four-year cycle, because no statewide or federal race is at the top of the ballot. Low turnout is likely to benefit opponents of tax increases.
Localities also would have to determine how to divide up any future tax revenue between schools and transit, which could provide further complications.
Alcorn said the discussion will give local leaders some things to think about during summer.
“I didn’t expect to have this conversation tonight, but it’s a good start,” he said. “We definitely need to talk about this and figure things out.”
At the NVTC board meeting, members expressed a degree of disappointment in what they viewed as limited success in getting the General Assembly to address the region’s transportation funding challenges.
“The outcome [in Richmond] to say the least was unexpected,” Snyder said. “I have a lot of questions about what happened and why.”
While no dedicated funding source was established, the adopted state budget included money for Metro and a directive telling the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation to study the potential impacts of merging Northern Virginia’s bus systems, according to the Virginia Mercury.
Aimee Perron Seibert, who represents NVTC’s interests in Richmond during the General Assembly session, suggested everyone take a break before circling back and attempting to dissect the 2026 legislative session.
“There’s still some unpacking that needs to happen about how we got where we got to,” she said. “I don’t have a good answer to that at the moment.”
One major unresolved question: Were the perceived modest successes achieved by local leaders on transit funding in the 2026 session the best that state legislators are going to provide Northern Virginia, or are they the beginning of a series of increasing commitments?
For now, Seibert is choosing to be an optimist.
“Most people think it’s a first step,” she said of the legislature’s new commitments. “I’m hoping that’s the case.”
