New home sales data for Fairfax County and the D.C. region show continued buyer wariness, but there’s no sense of impending doom.
“The [region’s] housing market has been slower-than-typical this spring, but it has fared much better than some expected in the face of cuts to the federal workforce and general economic uncertainty,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, the region’s multiple-listing service.
She was reacting to sales figures for May, reported Tuesday (June 10).
In Fairfax County, one bellwether data point — average per-square-foot cost for sold homes — was unchanged in May from a year before at $370.
It was, however, down slightly from the $377 average per-square-foot cost recorded during the first five months of the year.
Countywide home sales for the month totaled 1,278, down 4.3% from a year before, though the number of pending sales in the pipeline (1,362) was up 7.2%. The median sales price of $787,000 for all homes that closed or were in the process of closing in May was up 2.2%.
Sturtevant said that, across the region, the increasing median prices needed to come with an explanation attached.
“The higher median price this month largely reflects a shift to relatively more single-family and higher-priced home sales, which has been a stronger segment of the market than the lower-priced and entry-level market,” she said.
Homes that sold across Fairfax during the month moved swiftly from listing to ratified sales contracts — just six days.
Across the D.C. region as a whole, the 4,790 sales recorded in May represented a decline of 6.5% from a year before. That dropoff was more than triple the year-to-date, year-over-year decline of 2%.
Some of that shortfall could be made up when the June data arrive, as pending sales for May trended higher regionally, like they did in Fairfax.
The median sales price across the region stood at a record high of $659,950 in May, while the 10,413 active listings at the end of the month are higher than a year before, but still in line with historic norms.
Buyers are ready, but need some enticements, Sturtevant said.
“There is still a lot of pent-up demand in the market,” she said. “If mortgage rates come down, the summer could be much busier. However, economic uncertainty will continue to be a headwind in the market.”
Statewide, there’s also a sense of uncertain times ahead.
A monthly sentiment survey conducted by the Virginia Realtors trade group found a nearly equal split in where prices statewide are headed:
- 31% of respondents believed home prices in their areas would be higher in three months’ times, down from 74% who expected the same in the preceding month’s survey
- 32% expect prices to fall during that period, up from 24% a month before
- 30% expect prices to be flat, up from 26%
Some of that sentiment change is likely due to typical seasonality of the market, but concerns about economic conditions overall and the impact of federal government cuts may also play a role.
The survey was conducted between May 28 and June 4. A total of 974 members of Virginia Realtors participated, including 738 who had been part of a home-sale transaction within the preceding month.
