A record population count, higher home values and a rare year-over-year decline in household income are among the data highlights of Fairfax County’s latest annual demographic report.
Released in late June, the new report covers data from 2024. It is one of a host of tools offered by the county government on demographic and economic trends across Fairfax.
The 226-page report was compiled by county researchers Fei Carnes, Yan Jiang and Xuemei Han. It is mostly available online, but a “limited number” of print copies have been distributed to county libraries and the offices of supervisors, the county said in a news release.
Population, household growth
Fairfax County’s population stood at an estimated 1.19 million people at the start of 2024, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 0.9%. The growth rate has slowed from 2023, when the population ticked up 1.1% after a downturn during the first years of the pandemic.
The population by magisterial district in 2024 was estimated at:
- Sully: 142,346 people
- Hunter Mill: 140,303
- Providence: 136,492
- Dranesville: 132,451
- Springfield: 131,393
- Franconia: 130,620
- Braddock: 130,367
- Mount Vernon: 128,742
- Mason: 123,762
The report estimates that the county’s population will hit 1.3 million (11.6%) by 2040 and 1.37 million (14.4%) by 2050, with all magisterial districts expected to see growth.
The number of households is projected to grow from 426,000 in 2024 to about 501,200 in 2050.
Average household size
The average household size reported for 2024 was 2.77. The rate has been essentially flat, with only minor variations up and down, since 2010.
By comparison, in 1970 at the height of the Baby Boom era, Fairfax’s average household size was slightly higher than 3.5, according to the data.
Housing units
The report estimates that there were 437,144 housing units across the county at the start of 2024, up 1.06% from a year before.
That growth rate was slightly above the average of the past 20 years, but well below the county’s prime growth spurt in the 1960s-1980s. As late as 1990, the growth in housing units had been 4%, according to the report.
The housing stock in 2024 consisted of approximately 195,600 single-family homes, 91,125 townhomes and 1,785 manufactured or mobile homes. The remaining supply includes duplexes, multiplexes and multi-family condominium and apartment units.
For historical perspective, the number of housing units in the county stood at 26,558 in 1950, then grew to 69,181 in 1960, 130,768 in 1970, 215,671 in 1980, 302,464 in 1990 and 358,960 in 2000.
In 1950, three-quarters of all households across Fairfax resided in single-family homes. That rate declined to just over half (50.6%) in 2000 and to 45.1% in 2020. By 2050, it’s expected to drop to just under 40%.
Older population continues to grow
The number of residents aged 65 and older is expected to grow from 186,000 people in 2024 to 249,000 in 2050. Seniors currently comprise 15.6% of county households; by 2050, that rate is expected to grow to 18.2%.
Income and poverty rates
The county’s median household income in 2023 — the latest available data — was $141,553. A total of 33% of county households had incomes above $200,000, while 23% earned less than $75,000.
Despite a one-year decline of 2.5% from 2022, the median household income was up nearly 80% from 2003, when it stood at $80,753. It’s above the median for the D.C. region ($121,469), the state ($89,931) and the U.S. as a whole ($77,719)
The county’s poverty rate was 6% in 2023, while the regional rate was 7.9%, according to the report. In 2013, Fairfax’s poverty rate had stood at 5.8%, while the regional rate was 8.5%.
The new demographic report for 2024 includes a Gini index for the first time that measures how evenly income is distributed across a population. The scale ranges from 0, representing perfect equality, and to 1, which shows perfect inequality.
With a score of 0.43, as of 2023, Fairfax County has a slightly more equal distribution of income than the region (0.45), Virginia (0.47) and country (0.48), but the inequality has increased from 0.42 in 2013.
“The 2024 report provides both continuity and deeper context,” Fairfax County Department of Management and Budget Director Philip Hagen said in the press release. “We’re seeing steady growth in housing and population and we’re also building in new tools to understand economic equity countywide.”
Housing values
The overall median countywide home value at the start of 2024 was $708,383, according to the report. That includes all types of residential housing, including single-family, townhouses/rowhouses and condominiums.
Median values ranged from $612,029 in the Franconia District to $1,106,133 in the Dranesville District.
For single-family detached homes, the median value across the county to start 2024 was $864,885, but by magisterial district, it ranged from $777,914 in Mason to $1,247,831 in Dranesville.
The average monthly rent paid in Fairfax stood at $2,020 in 2023, the latest date for which figures were available.
That’s the first time the average rent has risen above $2,000 in the county, and it’s more than double the average of $989 recorded in 2000.
Housing supply
The report found that 79.8% of all residential units in Fairfax were constructed before 2020, with 25.6% built before 1970.
Mason District had the most homes constructed before 1970. at 57%. Sully District had the fewest, at 4.5%.
The report anticipates that every magisterial district will see a growth in housing units from 2024 to 2050, but the rate of growth is expected to vary widely:
- Hunter Mill: 25.8%
- Providence: 22.1%
- Dranesville: 15.3%
- Franconia: 9.5%
- Mount Vernon: 8.1%
- Mason: 7.7%
- Sully: 7.2%
- Springfield: 4.4%
- Braddock: 1.4%
Commercial real estate
Based on new estimates, the county had 280.5 million square feet of office, industrial and retail space at the start of 2024. Of that, about 130 million square feet was office, 102 million was retail and 48.5 million was industrial.
The Providence District boasted the most office space (38.8 million square feet) and the most retail space (16.4 million), while the most industrial space (10.2 million) was found in Mount Vernon District.
About a quarter (24.6%) of office, industrial and retail properties were constructed before 1980, and another 35.3% dates back to the 1980s. The remainder is more evenly split between the 1990s (16.4%), 2000s (11.5%) and 2010 onward (11.9%).
