Apartment hunters across most of Fairfax County are seeing lower rental rates than they were at this time last year, but higher costs are likely come springtime, according to new data.
Six of seven Fairfax communities included in Apartment List’s March rental report for the D.C. area showed year-over-year declines in median asking rents during February.
Those figures are in line with national trends, where rent prices in February were down 1.5%, Apartment List found:
“In dollar terms, the national median monthly rent now stands at $1,357, down $20 compared to February 2025. Prices peaked in mid-2022 after a year and a half of skyrocketing growth. Since then, the nationwide median rent has been gradually drifting down and has fallen from that peak by a total of 5.9%, or $85 per month. Despite the pullback in prices, today’s rent levels remain 18% higher than they were at the start of 2021.”
In the seven areas of Fairfax County surveyed, only Centreville saw a year-over-year increase in rental rates — a 1.5% increase to be exact, with median rates of $2,027 for one-bedroom units, $2,355 for two bedrooms and $2,398 for all units.
All other areas showed year-over-year declines:
- Annandale: Median rents were $1,938 for one-bedroom units, $2,211 for two bedrooms and $2,235 overall, down 0.2%
- Fair Oaks: Median rents were $2,138/$2,390/$3,433, down 3%
- Fairfax: Median rents were $1,866/$2,135/$2,222, down 2.5%
- Herndon: Median rents were $1,774/$2,129/$2,155, down 1.5%
- Reston: Median rents were $2,124/$2,249/$2,291, down 0.7%
- Tysons: Median rents were $2,232/$2,782/$2,552, down 2.2%
Year-over-year declines also were recorded in Arlington, where rents were down 1.7%, and Alexandria, down 2.8%.
Rent prices typically are cyclical, rising through the spring and summer and falling in autumn and winter. From January 2026 to February 2026, all Fairfax areas recorded increases except for Annandale, where the month-over-month median rental rate declined 0.2%.
Local rents in line with national trends
The national median rent increased by 0.2% from January to February, its first monthly increase since last July and in line with cyclical norms.
“Rents prices have consistently followed this seasonal pattern, but in recent years we’ve seen sharper winter dips and more modest summer bumps as the market has gone through a soft spell amid a wave of new multifamily construction,” Apartment List analysts said.
“In addition to steeper winter declines since 2022, we have also observed a slight shift in the timing of rental market seasonality,” they continued. “Whereas May used to be the annual peak for rent growth, over the past three years March has been the hottest month, with rent growth slowing down during what were, prior to the pandemic, the months when prices would increase most quickly.”
Among 100 large urban areas surveyed monthly by Apartment List, Virginia Beach had the fastest year-over-year rent growth in February, up 5.3%. Austin had the largest decline, at 5.9% following a major Covid-era growth spurt.
The national multifamily vacancy rate ticked up to 7.4% in February, a record high in the nearly nine years of data reported.
“We’re past the peak of a multifamily construction surge, but a healthy supply of new units are still hitting the market and colliding with sluggish demand, causing vacancies to continue trending up,” Apartment List analysts said.
Another firm that tracks monthly rental prices is Zumper. Its February data doesn’t align exactly with Apartment List’s, but shows similar trends.
For February, median U.S. rents were $1,499 for one-bedroom units, down 1.7% year-over year, and $1,878 for two bedrooms, down 1.4%, in the Zumper survey.
“The unusual rent cuts seen last summer and fall appear to have largely run their course, with winter pricing returning to a more typical seasonal pattern,” Zumper said in its analysis of market trends.
Among the 100 urban areas in the Zumper analysis, New York City had the highest one-bedroom rental rates in February, with a median rate of $4,250 down 1.8% from a year before.
For two-bedroom units, San Francisco topped the list at a whopping $5,120, up 21.3% from February 2025.
“San Francisco is a clear example of how quickly rent growth can reaccelerate in supply-constrained markets,” said Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades.
“Renewed job growth tied to AI and a gradual return to in-office work are pushing demand back into the market, particularly for larger units, at a time when new supply remains limited,” Georgiades said.
At the other end of the spectrum, Zumper’s lowest median price for one-bedroom units was recorded in Wichita, Kansas, at $720, with the lowest rate for two-bedroom units recorded in Shreveport, Louisiana, at $890.
Of the 100 locales, one-bedroom units could be rented for a median of $1,000 or less in 19. For two-bedroom units, only three localities — Wichita, Shreveport and Akron, Ohio — had median rents of less than $1,000, but 45 of the 100 had median rents of $1,500 or less.
