Fairfax County has reduced greenhouse gas emissions nearly 30% since 2005, with officials optimistic the downward trend will continue toward the county’s goals for 2030.
County staff provided a draft report of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments’ (COG) greenhouse gas inventory to the Board of Supervisors’ environmental committee last week (Nov. 25).
According to the inventory, the county emitted an estimated 10.59 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023, down from 14.78 million in 2005. Transportation emissions rose to 49% of all output from 42% in 2005, while commercial and residential buildings had slight decreases in their overall share of the output.
Looking at the short term, however, overall emissions rose marginally between 2020 and 2023 — an increase wholly attributed to travel rebounding from its plummet during the COVID-19 pandemic. Those emissions are driven by vehicle miles traveled, which are up since 2020 but remain below 2015 and 2018 levels.
But the granulated data show a continued downward trend in emissions, said John Morrill, director of the county’s Office of Environmental and Energy Coordination.
“This is a glass-half-full story,” he said. “The overall trends remain encouraging, with gains in transportation efficiency and buildings energy efficiency.”
Vehicle emission levels dropped even more than miles traveled from 2018 to 2023, thanks to the wider use of electric vehicles. There were approximately 37,193 electric vehicles registered in Fairfax County in 2024 compared to fewer than 2,300 in 2016, according to state and regional data.
Total electricity use has fallen 10% since 2015, including an 11% decline in residential and 9% decrease in commercial use. The increased efficiency has outpaced population and economic growth. Meanwhile, compared to 2005, emissions are down 43% in commercial buildings and 39% in residential buildings.
Officials believe the trends will continue toward the county’s greenhouse gas reduction goals for 2030, 2040 and 2050.
Under the Community-wide Energy and Climate Action Plan (CECAP) adopted in 2021, Fairfax County hopes to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 — meaning it won’t produce more emissions than it reduces or offsets. It’s targeting reductions from 2005 levels of 50% by 2030 and 75% by 2040.
“It’s telling the story that we need to keep telling about the progress we’re making even when it’s tough,” Board Chairman Jeff McKay said of the report.
The 2023 report also includes the first calculation of emissions from data centers, which house the hardware to make the internet function and have become a key economic development factor throughout Northern Virginia in recent years. Morrill said, as of 2023, the county’s data centers accounted for less than 2% of total emissions and less than 10% of electricity use, though more facilities are in the works.
The inventory report shared last month is still a draft. The final report is expected to be released in January.
