The Fairfax real-estate market had a solid start to 2025. Where Fairfax and the broader Northern Virginia region goes from there, however, is an open question.
“It is still too soon to tell whether the spring housing market will blossom or stay dormant a little longer,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, in parsing March’s housing data.
She believes the DC region’s housing market is “likely to be softer” than other parts of the Mid-Atlantic, as the impacts of federal-government downsizing begin to more broadly impact the region’s economy.
Fairfax County ended the first quarter of 2025 with 2,084 completed real-estate transactions, up 1.1% from the 2,061 a year before, according to Bright MLS.
Most other county home-sales figures were in positive year-over-year territory, as well:
- The average sales price of all properties that went to closing from Jan. 1 to March 31 in Fairfax County was $868,452, up 6.1%
- The median sales price of $735,000 was up 5%
- The average per-square-foot cost for transactions rose 4.7% to $382
- The average number of days on the market between listing and ratified sales contract was unchanged at six, one of the lowest rates across the 70-plus cities and counties of Bright MLS’s coverage area.
Across Northern Virginia’s largest jurisdictions, first-quarter sales were up in two localities but down in three compared to the same period in 2024.
In addition to Fairfax’s 1.1% increase, home sales rose 10.9% to 967 in Loudoun County. But sales were down 15.8% to 824 in Prince William County, 3.6% to 451 in Arlington and 4.3% to 398 in Alexandria.
Across the DC region, sales for the first quarter totaled 9,558, up 1.1%, with the median sales price rising 5.7% to $599,000. Average days on the market stood at 12, up from 10 a year before.
Regional figures include transactions in the District of Columbia; Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church in Virginia; and Montgomery, Prince William and Frederick counties in Maryland.
Closings often happen 30 to 45 days after a sales contract is agreed to, making them something of a lagging economic indicator.
A more close-in indicator of market activity is home showings, which in the first quarter of 2025 totaled slightly more than 260,000 in the region.
That’s a decline of 10.5%.
Another warning sign from the data: For the week ending April 13, owners of nearly one in nine (10.8%) homes listed for sale across Fairfax County dropped their asking prices.
It’s a rate double that of a year before, and above the overall regional rate of 9.2% for the week.
In the current environment, “sellers are willing to come down on their list price to meet the market,” Bright MLS analysts noted.
Sturtevant said a number of factors will determine how well the spring market does regionally.
“Falling mortgage rates could give the housing market a boost this spring,” she said. “But weakening economic conditions, more uncertainty and growing consumer anxiety could have a dampening effect on the market.”
In data for March reported on April 11, Fairfax home sales totaled 836, up 2.2% from a year before. The average sales price of single-family homes ($1,241,660) was up 10% while townhouses and other attached properties recorded an average sales price of $569,023, up 3.7%
The condominium market, however, was in negative territory. The average sales price of a condo in Fairfax last month was $413,292, down 2.5%.
Figures represent most, but not all, transactions during the period. All March 2025 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
Statewide home sales for March will be released in several weeks by Virginia Realtors. In the February sales report, there was some concern about softening conditions in Northern Virginia and other areas with a strong federal-government presence.
“February’s slowdown in sales could be an early signal that there is some hesitancy in some of our regional markets due to growing concerns around federal employment,” said Ryan Price, chief economist for Virginia Realtors. “But it is likely too soon to know the full scope or impacts potential job cuts could have on the housing market around much of the state.”
Price said a harsh winter weather and other factors also could have impacted market conditions.
Photo via Todd Kent/Unsplash
